Prediction markets: news reaction, clues, gas/CRA/era markets, intel broker, bigger stakes

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/Decentralized.Domain/Predict.cs

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ using System.Linq;
 
 namespace Decentralized.Domain
 {
-    public enum PredictKind { Event, Faction, Purity, Price }
+    public enum PredictKind { Event, Faction, Purity, Price, Gas, Cra, Era }
 
     public enum PredictResult { Ok, Closed, Amount, Funds, Cap, Opposite, NoPosition }
 
@@ -75,6 +75,14 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         public double Shares, Cost, Taint, Basis, Insider;
     }
 
+    /// <summary>情报贩子卖的内幕消息：对某个盘口给出"是 / 否"的说法，三档准确率，可能是假的（与真相相反）。</summary>
+    public sealed class PredictTip
+    {
+        public int Market, Tier;
+        public bool Claim;
+        public double Paid;
+    }
+
     /// <summary>结算记录（盘口列表下面的"最近结果"）。</summary>
     public sealed class PredictRecord
     {
@@ -109,6 +117,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         public List<PredictMarket> Markets = new List<PredictMarket>();
         public List<PredictPos> Positions = new List<PredictPos>();
         public List<PredictRecord> Recent = new List<PredictRecord>();
+        public List<PredictTip> Tips = new List<PredictTip>();
         public int Seq;
         /// <summary>每晚观测：当天新出现的事件标识（和 "F:派系"）。窗口里缺任何一天的观测，盘口作废退款。</summary>
         public Dictionary<int, List<string>> Started = new Dictionary<int, List<string>>();
@@ -222,6 +231,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
                 else Record(day, m, m.Outcome, 0, false);
             }
             Markets.RemoveAll(m => m.Outcome >= 0);
+            Tips.RemoveAll(t => Find(t.Market) == null);
             return evs;
         }
 
@@ -231,6 +241,34 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
             while (Recent.Count > Tuning.PredictHistory) Recent.RemoveAt(0);
         }
 
+        public PredictTip TipFor(int market) => Tips.Find(t => t.Market == market);
+
+        /// <summary>造一条内幕消息：假情报（概率 IntelFake）说的与真相相反，否则按这一档的准确率说对或说错。</summary>
+        public static PredictTip MakeTip(PredictMarket m, bool truth, int tier, Rng rng)
+        {
+            bool claim;
+            if (rng.Chance(Tuning.IntelFake)) claim = !truth;
+            else claim = rng.Chance(Tuning.IntelTipAcc[tier]) ? truth : !truth;
+            return new PredictTip { Market = m.Id, Tier = tier, Claim = claim, Paid = Tuning.IntelTipPrice[tier] * m.MaxLoss };
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// 夜间的消息反应：还能交易的盘口（明天仍开着）向"公开信息下的合理概率"靠拢 PredictDrift，再加 logit 噪声（NPC 流量）。
+        /// 价格在夜里才反应，所以白天先看到报纸、传闻的人可以抢在前面买、等涨价再卖。target 返回 null 表示这个盘口没有新信息。
+        /// </summary>
+        public void Drift(int day, Func<PredictMarket, double?> target, Rng rng)
+        {
+            foreach (var m in Markets.Where(x => x.Outcome < 0 && x.FromDay > day + 1))
+            {
+                double p = m.PYes, t = target(m) ?? p;
+                t = Math.Max(Tuning.PredictPMin, Math.Min(Tuning.PredictPMax, t));
+                double pt = p + Tuning.PredictDrift * (t - p);
+                double lp = Math.Log(pt / (1 - pt)) + Tuning.PredictNoise * rng.Gauss();
+                pt = Math.Max(Tuning.PredictPMin, Math.Min(Tuning.PredictPMax, 1 / (1 + Math.Exp(-lp))));
+                m.QYes = m.QNo + m.B * Math.Log(pt / (1 - pt));
+            }
+        }
+
         /// <summary>读观测：窗口里每一天都有记录才能判断；有任何一天缺就返回 null（作废）。</summary>
         public bool? Happened(PredictMarket m)
         {
@@ -260,7 +298,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
             {
                 var c = pool[rng.Range(0, pool.Count - 1)];
                 pool.RemoveAll(x => x.Kind == c.Kind && x.Key == c.Key);
-                int from = c.Tomorrow ? day + 1 : day + 1 + rng.Range(0, 1);
+                int from = c.Tomorrow ? day + 1 : day + 1 + rng.Range(0, 2);
                 int to = c.Tomorrow ? from : from + rng.Range(0, 2);
                 var m = PredictMarket.Create(++Seq, c.Kind, c.Key, c.Title, c.Param, day, from, to, c.Prob(from, to));
                 Markets.Add(m); made.Add(m);
@@ -279,6 +317,51 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
             return 1 - Math.Pow(1 - p1, days);
         }
 
+        /// <summary>某天 gas 不低于阈值的概率（已知相位）：周期值 × (1 ± 噪声) 均匀分布。</summary>
+        public static double GasAtLeast(int day, int phase, double threshold)
+        {
+            double c = TxRules.GasCycle(day, phase), hi = c * (1 + Tuning.TxGasNoise), lo = c * (1 - Tuning.TxGasNoise);
+            return Math.Max(0, Math.Min(1, (hi - threshold) / (hi - lo)));
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>不知道相位时的先验：七个相位等可能。</summary>
+        public static double GasFlat(int day, double threshold)
+        {
+            double s = 0;
+            for (int ph = 0; ph < Tuning.TxGasPeriod; ph++) s += GasAtLeast(day, ph, threshold);
+            return s / Tuning.TxGasPeriod;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// CRA 预警在 [from, to] 夜里发出的概率：每晚补贴池先被消耗，归零那晚必发，否则按日概率；
+        /// 窗口之前已经发出的不算（那就是"否"）。subsidy / drain 是今天的补贴池和每晚消耗，today 是今晚。
+        /// </summary>
+        public static double CraWarnProb(double subsidy, double drain, int today, int from, int to, double dailyHazard)
+        {
+            double noWarn = 1, inWindow = 0;
+            for (int d = today; d <= to; d++)
+            {
+                subsidy -= drain;
+                double h = subsidy <= 0 ? 1 : dailyHazard;
+                if (d >= from) inWindow += noWarn * h;
+                noWarn *= 1 - h;
+            }
+            return inWindow;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// 矿机时代在 [from, to] 开始的概率：没出预警时在 [eraMin, eraMax] 里均匀；预警已出（warnDay >= 0）时落在预警后 EraWarnMin..EraWarnMax 天。
+        /// 只算还没过去的日子（today 之后）。
+        /// </summary>
+        public static double EraProb(int today, int from, int to, int warnDay)
+        {
+            int lo = warnDay >= 0 ? warnDay + Tuning.EraWarnMin : Tuning.EraMin, hi = warnDay >= 0 ? warnDay + Tuning.EraWarnMax : Tuning.EraMax;
+            lo = Math.Max(lo, today + 1);
+            if (hi < lo) return 0;
+            int a = Math.Max(lo, from), b = Math.Min(hi, to);
+            return b < a ? 0 : (b - a + 1) / (double)(hi - lo + 1);
+        }
+
         public static double FactionProb(int days) => 1 - Math.Pow(1 - Tuning.PredictFactionDaily, days);
 
         /// <summary>均匀整数 lo..hi 里不低于 threshold 的概率。</summary>