Prediction markets: news reaction, clues, gas/CRA/era markets, intel broker, bigger stakes

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/Decentralized.Domain/Tuning.cs

@@ -192,11 +192,17 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         /// 同时开放的盘口数量范围、每天最多新开几个；内幕持仓达到上限份额的多少比例后结算被查的概率，查实后收益记罪证的比例与上限；
         /// 派系行动的日均开始概率（先验）；先验概率的夹紧范围；结算记录保留条数。</summary>
         public const int PredictUnlockDay = 8;
-        public const double PredictFee = 0.02, PredictLoss0 = 300, PredictLossPerDay = 10, PredictCap = 3;
+        public const double PredictFee = 0.02, PredictLoss0 = 800, PredictLossPerDay = 25, PredictCap = 3;
         public const int PredictOpenMin = 3, PredictOpenMax = 6, PredictNewPerDay = 2;
         public const double PredictInsiderShare = 0.4, PredictInsiderCatch = 0.5, PredictFraudShare = 0.5, PredictFraudCap = 400;
         public const double PredictFactionDaily = 0.06, PredictPMin = 0.03, PredictPMax = 0.97;
         public const int PredictHistory = 8;
+        /// <summary>盘口对消息的反应：每晚向"公开信息下的合理概率"靠拢的比例，以及盘口 logit 上的随机噪声（NPC 流量）。</summary>
+        public const double PredictDrift = 0.5, PredictNoise = 0.35;
+        /// <summary>情报贩子：局势简报价格（CRT）、三档内幕消息的价格（占盘口最大亏损的比例）与准确率、假情报概率（claim 与真相相反）、需要的黑市声望。</summary>
+        public const double IntelBriefPrice = 120, IntelFake = 0.10;
+        public static readonly double[] IntelTipPrice = { 0.01, 0.025, 0.05 }, IntelTipAcc = { 0.60, 0.80, 0.95 };
+        public const int IntelRep = 20;
 
         /// <summary>主交易对（信用点一侧）的深度随天数增长。</summary>
         public static double PoolDepth(int day) => PoolDepth0 * (1 + day / 60.0);