Stage 9.1: story links (Serpico, Eleanor, Officer Lun) and newspaper importance fix

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/Decentralized.Domain/Predict.cs

@@ -195,7 +195,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
             bool insider = PosAll(m.Id).Sum(x => x.Insider) >= Tuning.PredictInsiderShare * m.ShareCap;
             if (pos.Yes) m.QYes -= pos.Shares; else m.QNo -= pos.Shares;
             Positions.Remove(pos);
-            if (rng != null && insider && pos.Insider > 0 && got > pos.Cost && rng.Chance(Tuning.PredictInsiderCatch))
+            if (rng != null && insider && pos.Insider > 0 && got > pos.Cost && rng.Chance(Math.Min(1, Tuning.PredictInsiderCatch * StoryMods.Current.Enforce(day))))
             {
                 fraud = Math.Min(Tuning.PredictFraudCap, (got - pos.Cost) * Tuning.PredictFraudShare);
                 got = 0;
@@ -241,7 +241,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
                 st.Count++; st.SumP0 += m.P0; if (res.Value) st.Hits++;
                 var winners = all.Where(x => x.Yes == res.Value).ToList();
                 // 操纵：行情盘上，赢家的方向和玩家推价的方向一致时按推价幅度被查——本金和收益都没收，收益的一半记罪证
-                if (m.Kind == PredictKind.Price && winners.Count > 0 && winners.Any(x => x.Yes ? push > 0 : push < 0) && rng.Chance(Market.ManipChance(push)))
+                if (m.Kind == PredictKind.Price && winners.Count > 0 && winners.Any(x => x.Yes ? push > 0 : push < 0) && rng.Chance(Math.Min(1, Market.ManipChance(push) * StoryMods.Current.Enforce(day))))
                 {
                     double profitM = winners.Sum(x => x.Shares) - cost;
                     evs.Add(new PredictEvent { Kind = "manip", Title = m.Title, Market = m, Amount = cost, Fraud = Math.Min(Tuning.PredictFraudCap, Math.Max(0, profitM) * Tuning.PredictFraudShare) });
@@ -257,7 +257,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
                 {
                     double payout = winners.Sum(x => x.Shares), profit = payout - cost;
                     // 内幕持仓按盘口合计（拆到几个钱包里也一样）
-                    if (all.Sum(x => x.Insider) >= Tuning.PredictInsiderShare * m.ShareCap && rng.Chance(Tuning.PredictInsiderCatch))
+                    if (all.Sum(x => x.Insider) >= Tuning.PredictInsiderShare * m.ShareCap && rng.Chance(Math.Min(1, Tuning.PredictInsiderCatch * StoryMods.Current.Enforce(day))))
                     {
                         // 查实：本金和收益全部没收
                         evs.Add(new PredictEvent { Kind = "caught", Title = m.Title, Market = m, Amount = payout, Fraud = Math.Min(Tuning.PredictFraudCap, Math.Max(0, profit) * Tuning.PredictFraudShare) });