Stage 7.3: NPC scams (wicks, phishing airdrops, rug pools, fake support, forged transfers)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/Decentralized.Domain/Market.cs

@@ -23,6 +23,31 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         public double OpenPrice = Tuning.PscStartPrice;
         /// <summary>玩家自己的现货大单把价格推高（正）或压低（负）的对数幅度，每晚随价格回归一起衰减。操纵检出和预测盘用它估"没有玩家时的价格"。</summary>
         public double PlayerPush;
+        /// <summary>今天的插针（对数幅度，0 = 没有）和当晚回去的比例（0 = 真跌真涨）。</summary>
+        public double Wick, WickBack;
+
+        /// <summary>夜间结算开始时：插针按比例回去（结算、预测盘读的是回去后的价格）。</summary>
+        public void UndoWick(int day)
+        {
+            if (Wick == 0) return;
+            Main.SetPrice(Price * Math.Exp(-Wick * WickBack), Tuning.PoolDepth(day));
+            Wick = 0; WickBack = 0;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// 插针：开门后价格瞬间被打到一边（大户扫强平、砸盘吸筹），大部分当晚回去，一部分是真的。
+        /// 标记价用开门前的价格和收盘价平均，强平只吃一半。返回幅度（0 = 今天没有）。
+        /// </summary>
+        public double TryWick(Rng rng, int day)
+        {
+            Wick = 0; WickBack = 0;
+            if (!rng.Chance(Tuning.WickChance)) return 0;
+            double size = rng.Range(Tuning.WickMin, Tuning.WickMax) * (rng.Chance(0.5) ? 1 : -1);
+            Wick = size;
+            WickBack = rng.Chance(Tuning.WickReal) ? 0 : rng.Range(Tuning.WickRevertMin, Tuning.WickRevertMax);
+            Main.SetPrice(Price * Math.Exp(size), Tuning.PoolDepth(day));
+            return size;
+        }
         public double NeutralPrice => Price * Math.Exp(-PlayerPush);
         /// <summary>被查概率：推价幅度（绝对值）超过 ManipFree 后随幅度升高。</summary>
         public static double ManipChance(double push)
@@ -113,6 +138,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         /// </summary>
         public void Night(ICollection<MarketEvent> active, Rng rng, int day, Func<string, double> stablePrice)
         {
+            if (Wick != 0) { Main.SetPrice(Price * Math.Exp(-Wick * WickBack), Tuning.PoolDepth(day)); Wick = 0; WickBack = 0; }
             PlayerPush *= 1 - Tuning.Revert;
             Sentiment *= Math.Exp(Tuning.SentimentKappa * -Math.Log(Sentiment) + rng.Gauss() * Tuning.SentimentVol);
             double anchor = Anchor(active);

src/Decentralized.Domain/Scams.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,224 @@
+using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
+using System.Linq;
+
+namespace Decentralized.Domain
+{
+    /// <summary>空投：签名领取。正规空投不要授权或只要有限授权，给一点币；钓鱼空投要求对某个币"无上限授权"，几晚后把这个钱包里的这种币转走。</summary>
+    public sealed class Airdrop
+    {
+        public int Id, Expire;
+        public string Name, Asset;
+        /// <summary>领取要授权的额度：0 = 不要授权；double.PositiveInfinity = 无上限。</summary>
+        public double Approve;
+        public double Reward;
+        public bool Scam, Claimed;
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>钱包对某个合约的授权。钓鱼授权到 DrainDay 那晚把这种币转走，撤销后作废。</summary>
+    public sealed class Approval
+    {
+        public int Id, DrainDay = -1;
+        public string Wallet, Asset, Spender;
+        public double Limit;
+        public bool Scam;
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>第三方收益池（CRC）：日息、储备、有没有时间锁、有没有审计都看得见；是不是骗局看不见，跑路时存款全部没了。</summary>
+    public sealed class YieldPool
+    {
+        public int Id, OpenDay;
+        public string Name;
+        public double Rate, Reserve, Cap;
+        public bool Timelock, Audited, Scam, Closed;
+        public Dictionary<string, double> Deposits = new Dictionary<string, double>();
+        public Dictionary<string, double> Taint = new Dictionary<string, double>(), Basis = new Dictionary<string, double>();
+        /// <summary>时间锁池子的取款队列：钱包 → (到账日, 数额)。</summary>
+        public List<YieldWithdraw> Pending = new List<YieldWithdraw>();
+        public double Total => Deposits.Values.Sum();
+        public double Of(string wallet) => Deposits.TryGetValue(wallet, out var v) ? v : 0;
+    }
+
+    public sealed class YieldWithdraw { public string Wallet; public int Day; public double Amount, Taint, Basis; }
+
+    /// <summary>夜间发生的事。Kind：drain（钓鱼授权转走）/ rug（收益池跑路）/ dry（正规池储备耗尽，退本金）/ paid（取款到账）/ wickback（插针回去了）。</summary>
+    public sealed class ScamEvent
+    {
+        public string Kind, Name, Wallet, Asset;
+        public double Amount;
+    }
+
+    /// <summary>NPC 骗局：空投与授权、第三方收益池。插针在 <see cref="Market"/> 里。</summary>
+    public sealed class Scams
+    {
+        public List<Airdrop> Airdrops = new List<Airdrop>();
+        public List<Approval> Approvals = new List<Approval>();
+        public List<YieldPool> Pools = new List<YieldPool>();
+        public int Seq;
+        /// <summary>骗子用过的收款地址（假客服、钓鱼）：转到这些地址时晨间日志说明被骗。</summary>
+        public List<string> ScamAddrs = new List<string>();
+
+        private static readonly string[] AirdropNames = { "Poinbase", "PSC Foundation", "RatDigg", "Revolution DAO", "Gutter Labs", "Station Rewards" };
+        private static readonly string[] PoolNames = { "Nebula Yield", "Rustwater Vault", "Orbit Farm", "Deck 9 Savings", "Gutterflow Pool", "Halo Staking", "Ironclad Earn" };
+
+        public static double ScamChance(double rate, bool timelock, bool audited)
+        {
+            int i = Array.IndexOf(Tuning.YieldRates, rate);
+            double p = i >= 0 ? Tuning.YieldScamByRate[i] : 0.5;
+            if (timelock) p -= Tuning.YieldScamTimelock;
+            if (audited) p -= Tuning.YieldScamAudit;
+            return Math.Max(0.02, Math.Min(0.95, p));
+        }
+
+        // ——— 空投 ———
+
+        /// <summary>新空投。钓鱼的名字常是正规名字的仿冒（一个字符不同），要求对一种币无上限授权，奖励看起来更高。</summary>
+        public Airdrop NewAirdrop(int day, Rng rng, string[] assets)
+        {
+            bool scam = rng.Chance(Tuning.AirdropScam);
+            string name = AirdropNames[rng.Range(0, AirdropNames.Length - 1)];
+            if (scam && rng.Chance(0.6)) name = Typo(name, rng);
+            string asset = assets[rng.Range(0, assets.Length - 1)];
+            double reward = Math.Round(rng.Range(Tuning.AirdropRewardMin, Tuning.AirdropRewardMax));
+            if (scam) reward = Math.Round(reward * rng.Range(1.5, 3.0));
+            // 钓鱼：多数要无上限授权，三成要一个看着像有限、其实远大于奖励的额度
+            double approve = scam ? (rng.Chance(0.3) ? Math.Round(reward * rng.Range(20.0, 100.0) / 10) * 10 : double.PositiveInfinity) : rng.Chance(0.5) ? 0 : Math.Round(rng.Range(10.0, 60.0));
+            var a = new Airdrop { Id = ++Seq, Name = name, Asset = asset, Approve = approve, Reward = reward, Scam = scam, Expire = day + Tuning.AirdropDays };
+            Airdrops.Add(a);
+            return a;
+        }
+
+        private static string Typo(string s, Rng rng)
+        {
+            var swaps = new Dictionary<char, char> { ['o'] = '0', ['i'] = '1', ['l'] = '1', ['e'] = '3', ['a'] = '4', ['s'] = '5', ['n'] = 'm' };
+            var idx = Enumerable.Range(0, s.Length).Where(i => swaps.ContainsKey(char.ToLowerInvariant(s[i]))).ToList();
+            if (idx.Count == 0) return s + "s";
+            int k = idx[rng.Range(0, idx.Count - 1)];
+            return s.Substring(0, k) + swaps[char.ToLowerInvariant(s[k])] + s.Substring(k + 1);
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>领取：正规空投给奖励（干净的 CRC），钓鱼空投给一点点诱饵；有授权的记一条授权，钓鱼授权定下转走的那晚。</summary>
+        public Approval Claim(Airdrop a, Wallet w, int day, Rng rng, out double got)
+        {
+            got = 0;
+            if (a.Claimed || day > a.Expire) return null;
+            a.Claimed = true;
+            got = a.Scam ? Math.Round(a.Reward * 0.05, 2) : a.Reward;
+            w.Add(Assets.CRC, got); w.Basis += got;
+            if (a.Approve <= 0) return null;
+            var ap = new Approval { Id = ++Seq, Wallet = w.Address, Asset = a.Asset, Spender = a.Name, Limit = a.Approve, Scam = a.Scam, DrainDay = a.Scam ? day + rng.Range(Tuning.AirdropDrainMin, Tuning.AirdropDrainMax) : -1 };
+            Approvals.Add(ap);
+            return ap;
+        }
+
+        public bool Revoke(int id) => Approvals.RemoveAll(x => x.Id == id) > 0;
+
+        // ——— 收益池 ———
+
+        public YieldPool NewPool(int day, Rng rng)
+        {
+            double rate = Tuning.YieldRates[rng.Range(0, Tuning.YieldRates.Length - 1)];
+            bool timelock = rng.Chance(0.5), audited = rng.Chance(0.4);
+            bool scam = rng.Chance(ScamChance(rate, timelock, audited));
+            double cap = Tuning.YieldCap0 + Tuning.YieldCapPerDay * day;
+            var used = Pools.Where(p => !p.Closed).Select(p => p.Name).ToList();
+            var names = PoolNames.Where(n => !used.Contains(n)).ToList();
+            var p2 = new YieldPool
+            {
+                Id = ++Seq, OpenDay = day, Name = names.Count > 0 ? names[rng.Range(0, names.Count - 1)] : "Pool " + Seq,
+                Rate = rate, Timelock = timelock, Audited = audited, Scam = scam, Cap = cap,
+                // 正规池的储备够付若干天满额利息；骗局池报一个好看的数字（不会真付到那么多天，跑路前一直照付）
+                Reserve = Math.Round(rate * cap * Tuning.YieldReserveDays * (scam ? rng.Range(0.8, 1.6) : rng.Range(0.6, 1.2))),
+            };
+            Pools.Add(p2);
+            return p2;
+        }
+
+        public bool Deposit(YieldPool p, Wallet w, double amount, Func<string, double> pr)
+        {
+            if (p.Closed || amount <= 0 || w.Avail(Assets.CRC) + 1e-9 < amount || p.Total + amount > p.Cap + 1e-9) return false;
+            double total = w.Value(pr), share = total > 0 ? Math.Min(1, amount * pr(Assets.CRC) / total) : 0;
+            double taint = w.Taint * share, basis = w.Basis * share;
+            w.Add(Assets.CRC, -amount); w.Taint -= taint; w.Basis -= basis;
+            p.Deposits[w.Address] = p.Of(w.Address) + amount;
+            p.Taint[w.Address] = (p.Taint.TryGetValue(w.Address, out var t) ? t : 0) + taint;
+            p.Basis[w.Address] = (p.Basis.TryGetValue(w.Address, out var b) ? b : 0) + basis;
+            return true;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>取出：没有时间锁的马上到账；有时间锁的进队列，几天后到账（跑路了就没了）。返回马上到账的数额。</summary>
+        public double Withdraw(YieldPool p, Wallet w, int day)
+        {
+            double amt = p.Of(w.Address);
+            if (amt <= 0 || p.Closed) return 0;
+            double taint = p.Taint.TryGetValue(w.Address, out var t) ? t : 0, basis = p.Basis.TryGetValue(w.Address, out var b) ? b : 0;
+            p.Deposits.Remove(w.Address); p.Taint.Remove(w.Address); p.Basis.Remove(w.Address);
+            if (p.Timelock) { p.Pending.Add(new YieldWithdraw { Wallet = w.Address, Day = day + Tuning.YieldLockDays, Amount = amt, Taint = taint, Basis = basis }); return 0; }
+            Pay(w, amt, taint, basis);
+            return amt;
+        }
+
+        private static void Pay(Wallet w, double amt, double taint, double basis)
+        {
+            w.Add(Assets.CRC, amt); w.Taint += taint; w.Basis += basis;
+        }
+
+        // ——— 夜间 ———
+
+        /// <summary>
+        /// 夜间：钓鱼授权到期转走；收益池计息、储备耗尽的正规池退本金关闭、骗局池按概率跑路；时间锁取款到账；过期空投清掉；随机新空投和新收益池。
+        /// </summary>
+        public List<ScamEvent> Night(int day, Rng rng, Func<string, Wallet> own, string[] airdropAssets, Func<string, double> pr = null)
+        {
+            var evs = new List<ScamEvent>();
+            foreach (var ap in Approvals.Where(x => x.Scam && x.DrainDay >= 0 && x.DrainDay <= day).ToList())
+            {
+                Approvals.Remove(ap);
+                var w = own(ap.Wallet);
+                if (w == null) continue;
+                double amt = Math.Min(ap.Limit, w.Avail(ap.Asset));
+                if (amt <= 1e-9) continue;
+                if (pr != null) w.Spend(ap.Asset, amt, pr); else w.Add(ap.Asset, -amt);
+                evs.Add(new ScamEvent { Kind = "drain", Name = ap.Spender, Wallet = ap.Wallet, Asset = ap.Asset, Amount = amt });
+            }
+            foreach (var p in Pools.Where(x => !x.Closed).ToList())
+            {
+                if (p.Scam && p.Total > 0 && day > p.OpenDay && rng.Chance(Tuning.YieldRugNightly))
+                {
+                    foreach (var kv in p.Deposits) evs.Add(new ScamEvent { Kind = "rug", Name = p.Name, Wallet = kv.Key, Asset = Assets.CRC, Amount = kv.Value });
+                    foreach (var q in p.Pending) evs.Add(new ScamEvent { Kind = "rug", Name = p.Name, Wallet = q.Wallet, Asset = Assets.CRC, Amount = q.Amount });
+                    p.Deposits.Clear(); p.Pending.Clear(); p.Closed = true;
+                    continue;
+                }
+                double interest = p.Total * p.Rate;
+                if (!p.Scam && interest > p.Reserve)
+                {
+                    foreach (var kv in p.Deposits.ToList())
+                    {
+                        var w = own(kv.Key);
+                        if (w != null) Pay(w, kv.Value, p.Taint.TryGetValue(kv.Key, out var t) ? t : 0, p.Basis.TryGetValue(kv.Key, out var b) ? b : 0);
+                        evs.Add(new ScamEvent { Kind = "dry", Name = p.Name, Wallet = kv.Key, Asset = Assets.CRC, Amount = kv.Value });
+                    }
+                    p.Deposits.Clear(); p.Closed = true;
+                }
+                else
+                {
+                    p.Reserve -= interest;
+                    foreach (var k in p.Deposits.Keys.ToList()) p.Deposits[k] *= 1 + p.Rate;
+                }
+                foreach (var q in p.Pending.Where(x => x.Day <= day).ToList())
+                {
+                    p.Pending.Remove(q);
+                    var w = own(q.Wallet);
+                    if (w != null) Pay(w, q.Amount, q.Taint, q.Basis);
+                    evs.Add(new ScamEvent { Kind = "paid", Name = p.Name, Wallet = q.Wallet, Asset = Assets.CRC, Amount = q.Amount });
+                }
+            }
+            Pools.RemoveAll(p => p.Closed && p.Pending.Count == 0 && day - p.OpenDay > 20);
+            Airdrops.RemoveAll(a => a.Expire < day + 1);
+            if (rng.Chance(Tuning.AirdropChance)) NewAirdrop(day + 1, rng, airdropAssets);
+            if (Pools.Count(p => !p.Closed) < Tuning.YieldPoolMax && rng.Chance(Tuning.YieldPoolChance)) NewPool(day + 1, rng);
+            return evs;
+        }
+    }
+}

src/Decentralized.Domain/Tuning.cs

@@ -218,6 +218,21 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         public const double PonziReport0 = 0.02, PonziReportRate = 0.5, PonziReportSize = 0.04;
         public const double PonziCrime = 1200;
 
+        /// <summary>插针：每天开门时出现的概率、幅度范围（对数价格的绝对值）、当晚回去的比例范围、不回去（真跌真涨）的概率。</summary>
+        public const double WickChance = 0.07, WickMin = 0.15, WickMax = 0.30, WickRevertMin = 0.6, WickRevertMax = 1.0, WickReal = 0.3;
+        /// <summary>空投：每晚出现新空投的概率、有效天数、骗局占比、正规空投奖励范围（信用点等值）、钓鱼授权后被转走的延迟（晚）。</summary>
+        public const double AirdropChance = 0.35, AirdropScam = 0.4, AirdropRewardMin = 20, AirdropRewardMax = 120;
+        public const int AirdropDays = 2, AirdropDrainMin = 1, AirdropDrainMax = 2;
+        /// <summary>第三方收益池：同时最多几个、每晚新开的概率；日息档位；按日息的骗局概率，时间锁、审计各减多少；骗局池每晚跑路概率；
+        /// 单池存款上限（随天数）；正规池的储备（日息 × 存款上限 × 天数）；时间锁取款等待天数。</summary>
+        public const int YieldPoolMax = 3, YieldLockDays = 2;
+        public const double YieldPoolChance = 0.25, YieldRugNightly = 0.18, YieldCap0 = 2000, YieldCapPerDay = 60, YieldReserveDays = 25;
+        public static readonly double[] YieldRates = { 0.01, 0.02, 0.03 }, YieldScamByRate = { 0.15, 0.40, 0.75 };
+        public const double YieldScamTimelock = 0.25, YieldScamAudit = 0.20;
+        /// <summary>假客服：每天上门的概率；伪造转账：用币付款的顾客里是骗子的比例；两者都从第几天起。</summary>
+        public const double FakeSupportChance = 0.04, FakeTransferShare = 0.08;
+        public const int ScamMinDay = 10;
+
         /// <summary>主交易对（信用点一侧）的深度随天数增长。</summary>
         public static double PoolDepth(int day) => PoolDepth0 * (1 + day / 60.0);
     }