diff --git a/CHANGELOG.md b/CHANGELOG.md index 569c8cf..1d8d203 100644 --- a/CHANGELOG.md +++ b/CHANGELOG.md @@ -2,6 +2,12 @@ ## 未发布 +### 第七阶段：预测市场与操纵（7.1 预测市场、7.2 操纵检出） + +- 操纵检出（7.2 前半）：Poinbase 主池上玩家自己的现货单会累计"推价幅度"（对数），每晚随价格回归衰减，预测盘线索里能看到。幅度超过 2% 后，价格盘押中且方向和推价一致、或 PSC 永续平仓盈利且方向一致，按幅度被查（25% + 6 × (幅度 − 2%)，封顶 95%）：预测盘本金和收益全部没收、永续盈利没收，收益的一半记 FRAUD（上限 400），永续账户冻结 3 天，报纸出一条调查新闻。把规则从最初设想的"单日推价 ≥ 15%"改成了 2% 起：manipsim 显示价格盘阈值离现价只有 3–10%，尾盘买 58 的成本就能赢上千，≥ 15% 的线形同虚设。 +- 复核（ops `research/manipsim`，第 30 天）：先空后砸本身不赚——永续单边滑点加现货来回价差，砸盘 4000–20000 配 5000–20000 的空单平均净亏 66–4400，只有砸盘 4 万（推价 57%）配小空单才勉强为正；尾盘拉价格过价格盘阈值在没有检出时几乎稳赢（成本 40–125，净赚 570–1390，亏钱概率 ≈ 0），加检出后下注 ≤ 1000 平均只赚 100–240、亏钱概率 40–60%，下注 3000 平均亏 400–1500。 +- 游戏内验证：Poinbase 买 4000 CRC 的 PSC，推价累计 +15.1%，价格盘线索栏显示"你推价 +15.1%，易被查"。没有在游戏里验证：被查后的没收、新闻、永续冻结（单元测试覆盖预测盘判定；永续平仓的判定只有代码路径）。 + ### 第七阶段：预测市场与操纵（7.1 预测市场） - Web3 页"预测"子页（游戏第 8 天起，Web3 治理社区已买下）：每个盘口是一道是非题，开盘当天到窗口开始前可以买卖，窗口最后一天夜里结算；每天开门后补盘，同时开放 3–6 个，每天最多新开 2 个。资金走链上钱包的 CRC：买入、全部卖出都是合约调用，要在钱包上签名（和质押一样；买入的手续费在核对页选档、用 CRC 付，卖出用价值最高的币付）；持仓记在签名的钱包名下，结算时兑付回这个钱包，同一盘口各钱包只能押同一边，持仓上限和内幕判定按盘口合计（拆到几个钱包躲不过）。污点与成本按花掉的价值比例随资金进持仓，赢的钱继承押注资金的污点比例，卖回时按比例退。 diff --git a/src/Decentralized.Domain/Market.cs b/src/Decentralized.Domain/Market.cs index b4a1be0..19b944e 100644 --- a/src/Decentralized.Domain/Market.cs +++ b/src/Decentralized.Domain/Market.cs @@ -21,6 +21,15 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain public List Pools = new List(); /// 开门时的参考价，夜间用它和收盘价算当日均价（合约的标记价）。 public double OpenPrice = Tuning.PscStartPrice; + /// 玩家自己的现货大单把价格推高（正）或压低（负）的对数幅度，每晚随价格回归一起衰减。操纵检出和预测盘用它估"没有玩家时的价格"。 + public double PlayerPush; + public double NeutralPrice => Price * Math.Exp(-PlayerPush); + /// 被查概率：推价幅度（绝对值）超过 ManipFree 后随幅度升高。 + public static double ManipChance(double push) + { + push = Math.Abs(push); + return push < Tuning.ManipFree ? 0 : Math.Min(Tuning.ManipMax, Tuning.ManipBase + Tuning.ManipSlope * (push - Tuning.ManipFree)); + } public const double ArbRate = Tuning.SideArbRate; // 非主交易对每晚被拉回参考价的比例 public const double SideDepthShare = Tuning.SideDepthShare; // 非主交易对的深度占主交易对的比例 @@ -104,6 +113,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain /// public void Night(ICollection active, Rng rng, int day, Func stablePrice) { + PlayerPush *= 1 - Tuning.Revert; Sentiment *= Math.Exp(Tuning.SentimentKappa * -Math.Log(Sentiment) + rng.Gauss() * Tuning.SentimentVol); double anchor = Anchor(active); double lp = Math.Log(Price); diff --git a/src/Decentralized.Domain/Predict.cs b/src/Decentralized.Domain/Predict.cs index 6f2c703..2ef7619 100644 --- a/src/Decentralized.Domain/Predict.cs +++ b/src/Decentralized.Domain/Predict.cs @@ -183,7 +183,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain /// 夜间：先登记今晚的观测，再结算 ToDay 到了的盘口（赢的钱回到下注的钱包，wallet 按地址找）。outcome 由接入层给出（事件 / 派系读观测，纯度和行情读游戏数值），null 表示拿不到数据。 /// 赢家每份兑付 1 信用点；内幕持仓达到份额上限的 后，有概率被查：只退本金，收益的一半记罪证。 /// - public List Night(int day, IEnumerable activeNow, Func outcome, Func wallet, Rng rng) + public List Night(int day, IEnumerable activeNow, Func outcome, Func wallet, Rng rng, double push = 0) { var now = activeNow.Distinct().ToList(); if (Prev != null) Started[day] = now.Where(x => !Prev.Contains(x)).ToList(); @@ -206,6 +206,14 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain } m.Outcome = res.Value ? 1 : 0; var winners = all.Where(x => x.Yes == res.Value).ToList(); + // 操纵：行情盘上，赢家的方向和玩家推价的方向一致时按推价幅度被查——本金和收益都没收，收益的一半记罪证 + if (m.Kind == PredictKind.Price && winners.Count > 0 && winners.Any(x => x.Yes ? push > 0 : push < 0) && rng.Chance(Market.ManipChance(push))) + { + double profitM = winners.Sum(x => x.Shares) - cost; + evs.Add(new PredictEvent { Kind = "manip", Title = m.Title, Market = m, Amount = cost, Fraud = Math.Min(Tuning.PredictFraudCap, Math.Max(0, profitM) * Tuning.PredictFraudShare) }); + Record(day, m, m.Outcome, -cost, true); + continue; + } if (all.Count > 0 && winners.Count == 0) { evs.Add(new PredictEvent { Kind = "lose", Title = m.Title, Market = m, Amount = cost }); diff --git a/src/Decentralized.Domain/Tuning.cs b/src/Decentralized.Domain/Tuning.cs index ad24a5b..3b0ddc3 100644 --- a/src/Decentralized.Domain/Tuning.cs +++ b/src/Decentralized.Domain/Tuning.cs @@ -203,6 +203,10 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain public const double IntelBriefPrice = 120, IntelFake = 0.10; public static readonly double[] IntelTipPrice = { 0.01, 0.025, 0.05 }, IntelTipAcc = { 0.60, 0.80, 0.95 }; public const int IntelRep = 20; + /// 操纵检出：玩家自己的大单把价格推离"没有你时的水平"的对数幅度（取绝对值）低于 ManipFree 不查； + /// 超过后被查概率 = ManipBase + ManipSlope × (幅度 − ManipFree)，封顶 ManipMax；被查后永续账户冻结几天。 + public const double ManipFree = 0.02, ManipBase = 0.25, ManipSlope = 6, ManipMax = 0.95; + public const int ManipFreezeDays = 3; /// 主交易对（信用点一侧）的深度随天数增长。 public static double PoolDepth(int day) => PoolDepth0 * (1 + day / 60.0); diff --git a/src/Decentralized/DealerStock.cs b/src/Decentralized/DealerStock.cs index 204f5fb..6c74995 100644 --- a/src/Decentralized/DealerStock.cs +++ b/src/Decentralized/DealerStock.cs @@ -77,14 +77,14 @@ namespace Decentralized })); ModHelper.AddDebugFunction(ModInfo.Id, ModInfo.Name, "Give ASIC M1/M2/M3 (test)", () => { foreach (var m in new[] { "M1", "M2", "M3" }) Items.Give(AsicItems.New(m, 100)); for (int i = 0; i < 4; i++) Items.Give(ModHelper.SpawnItem("rare_electronic")); }); ModHelper.AddDebugFunction(ModInfo.Id, ModInfo.Name, "Era in 2 days (test)", () => { var n = Session.Data.Network; int day = StoreStation.GetDayCounter(); n.EraDay = day + 2; n.EraWarnDay = day; n.EraWarned = false; n.EraDone = false; Log.Info($"测试：矿机时代第 {n.EraDay} 天，NPC 耗电 {n.NpcKj}"); }); - ModHelper.AddDebugFunction(ModInfo.Id, ModInfo.Name, "Predict: markets now (test)", () => Log.Guard("预测测试", () => + ModHelper.AddDebugFunction(ModInfo.Id, ModInfo.Name, "Predict: refill all kinds (test)", () => Log.Guard("预测测试", () => { var d = Session.Data; int day = StoreStation.GetDayCounter(); d.Predict.Markets.Clear(); var made = new List(); for (int i = 0; i < 4; i++) made.AddRange(d.Predict.Refill(day, d.Rng, PredictGame.Candidates(day))); Log.Info($"测试：新开 {made.Count} 个预测盘口（不看解锁日）"); })); - ModHelper.AddDebugFunction(ModInfo.Id, ModInfo.Name, "Predict: era + CRA markets (test)", () => + ModHelper.AddDebugFunction(ModInfo.Id, ModInfo.Name, "Predict: add era and CRA (test)", () => { var d = Session.Data; int day = StoreStation.GetDayCounter(); var bk = d.Predict; bk.Markets.Add(PredictMarket.Create(++bk.Seq, PredictKind.Era, "era", L.T("predict.era"), 0, day, day + 1, day + 3, PredictMath.EraProb(day, day + 1, day + 3, -1) + 0.05)); diff --git a/src/Decentralized/ModFiles/Localization/en.csv b/src/Decentralized/ModFiles/Localization/en.csv index ab720a1..10776a0 100644 --- a/src/Decentralized/ModFiles/Localization/en.csv +++ b/src/Decentralized/ModFiles/Localization/en.csv @@ -268,7 +268,7 @@ black.kind.Contraband.3,Contraband (high) black.kind.Tech,High-tech (markup) nightlog.bm.ready,"Black market: {0} arrived; a courier will come by once you open." item.web3guide.name,Web3 Handbook -item.web3guide.desc,"Bank: depositing turns credits into CRC in your Poinbase account; withdrawing turns CRC back into credits and goes through compliance screening, which looks at the Poinbase account's taint. Trading: buys are paid in the quote coin, sells in the traded coin. Mixer: pick a coin, amount and rounds; each round takes a fee and lowers taint, rounds equal days of waiting, and the coins come back to the same address; the more you deposit, the worse the cleaning. Hardware wallets: on-chain coins sit in PLEDGER hardware wallets, each with its own balances and taint; open and connect them on the terminal's Wallets page. The Web3 page's trading, black market and mixer use the connected wallet, and coin-paying customers and mining rewards go into it too. Payments (black market, mixer, Ponero desk, listing fees) start as an invoice on the terminal; type the payee address on the wallet and hold ✓ to sign. The last two characters of an address are a checksum, so a one-character typo is usually caught; once in a while it happens to be valid and the coins go to an address nobody uses. DEX swaps also need a signature on the wallet. RatDigg miners (M1 / M2 / M3) are standalone machines with far more hash than a card and a lower power draw per hash; they need a battery, take modules and use no rig slots. Only the black market's miner dealers sell them, gated by black-market standing (M1 40, M2 60, M3 80), sometimes second-hand. When one burns out, repair it by putting electronic components in its repair slot in order; it comes back 20 health lower. Somewhere between day 50 and day 90 a "miner era" arrives, announced in the paper a few days earlier: the big farms halve their power costs, network hash climbs, GPU miners are diluted and low-end cards barely earn, while miners still do fine. Perps: the Perps tab on Poinbase uses your account CRC as margin, up to 5× on PSC and 3× on SPARK, one position per product, never long and short at once. Fills are worse than the quote (more so for bigger orders, like the spot pool) and opening and closing both cost a fee. Liquidation is checked only overnight against the day's average price: equity under 10% of notional wipes the margin. There is also a nightly funding payment; when the price is above its 7-day average, longs pay shorts. If a liquidation loses more than the margin, the insurance fund covers the gap; when it runs dry (a SPARK collapse can do that) winning positions are auto-deleveraged and give up half their profit; anything beyond that becomes your debt. Debt grows 2% a day, is repaid first from CRC in the account every night, blocks new positions and cash-outs, and after seven days items in your shop are seized to cover it; whatever is still short is written off and the perp account is banned for 30 days. Poinbase is a custodial account and can withdraw straight to the connected wallet; depositing from a wallet means sending to Poinbase's deposit address, which takes only CRC and PSC. More hardware wallets are sold by Dr. Jackson; drag one onto the trading terminal to add it, up to 5. The black market has cheaper ones. A wallet you no longer want can be destroyed on the Wallets page once its coins are moved out. Transfers pay a fee: slow, normal or fast, and gas prices rise and fall over roughly a week; when the network is congested fees rise and slow transactions may be dropped from the mempool. Check the full address before sending. Staking: CRA staked in the Revolution pool earns a daily rate that compounds into the stake; withdrawing means requesting first and waiting four days, with no interest while waiting and no way to take it early. The pool pays from a subsidy fund; when it runs low the rate is cut and word of big holders pulling out may spread. Treat that as a warning: once it collapses CRA is worthless within three days and four days of unlocking is too slow. The balance token SPARK can be minted and burned against CRA at the going price (with a fee); its price swings hard and crashes with the collapse. Staking, minting and burning are contract calls and need a signature on the wallet. Black market: coin only, no CRC, 30% above normal channels, with extra markup on high-tech goods and GPUs; the coin you pay leaves its share of taint with the seller and the goods carry no stolen tag; GPUs may be fake, inspect them yourself. Orders are cheaper than spot but take days and may be intercepted; merchants sell by type at their own price factor, 5+ items get 5% off and 10+ get 10% off, and a bulk merchant appears at random with the lowest prices but six days of waiting; escrow costs 5%, is released on delivery and refunded if the seller runs; advance release takes another 10% off, but a scammer keeps the money and only sellers with 30+ trades accept; the platform itself can rug, be taken over by enforcement, or a seller can be arrested, after which your orders get traced and crime logged; forum rumors can be warnings. An intercepted parcel sometimes turns into enforcement at your door: signing logs the crime on the spot and seizes the goods, refusing only costs the payment. Selling: on the black market's Sell tab, list contraband, high-tech goods and GPUs from storage at 0.6x to 1.8x the reference price. The higher the multiplier, the slower the sale (below 0.9x about a day, 1.0x about two, 1.8x about fourteen), and the likelier and larger the taint on the payout, which also grows with how much you sold in the last 7 days; at most 10 listings at a time, 5% listing fee, repricing a listing costs 2% and the sale speed follows the new multiplier, 8% commission, payout held 3 days before reaching your wallet; a fake card may be spotted and returned, hurting your rating; if the platform rugs, listed goods and unreleased payouts are gone. Anonymous-coin swap (Web3 trade page, needs black-market standing): Ponero is a privacy coin and swapping in wipes the taint on that value; 6% fee each way with a daily limit; coin swapped out of Ponero has no origin and cash-out screening gets stricter. Prediction markets (Web3 Predict page, from game day 8): each market is a yes/no question about things the game itself rolls or schedules: a news event appearing, a faction operation starting, tomorrow's water purity, the PSC price. A market is open until its window starts and settles on the night of the window's last day. Buy Yes or No with CRC from your on-chain wallet (a contract call: sign on the wallet; the position belongs to the signing wallet); the price is the market's implied probability and rises as you buy; each winning share pays 1 credit; 2% fee on each trade; each market has a position limit. Winnings inherit the taint ratio of the stake. Rumor slips and faction perks can tell you ahead of time that something will happen; betting Yes on such a market is an insider bet. A large insider position has a 50% chance of being caught at settlement: only your stake is returned and half the profit goes on record as fraud. If game data is missing for the window (for example you skipped the nightly settlement), the market is void and the stake is refunded. Prices react to news: each night every open market moves halfway toward the fair probability given public information, plus some noise; so whoever reads the paper, a rumor slip or a faction perk first can buy ahead and sell after the move instead of waiting for settlement. The clue list in a market panel shows what you know about it: schedules, cooldowns, the halving day, recent gas values, the CRA subsidy pool level, ASIC-era announcements. Patterns you can work out: faction operations are triggered by hidden power values at thresholds (for example a crackdown needs security >= 20 and black market >= 40, and drops security by 20); gas runs on a seven-day cycle; the price anchor ramps up the week before a halving; scheduled crackdowns and blackouts move the anchor but the market price does not reflect them ahead of time; the faster the subsidy drains (the more is staked) the earlier CRA warns; the PSC price market can be moved by your own big orders. The intel broker (needs enough black-market standing) sells a situation brief (the five power values and what each faction can launch now, in CRT) and three grades of insider tip (only for faction operations and the ASIC era, which are already decided; about 60 / 80 / 95% accurate; priced by market size; one in ten is fake and says the opposite of the truth); betting the tipped side counts as an insider bet. Market size grows with the day and a wrong bet loses the whole stake, so do not put everything on one market." +item.web3guide.desc,"Bank: depositing turns credits into CRC in your Poinbase account; withdrawing turns CRC back into credits and goes through compliance screening, which looks at the Poinbase account's taint. Trading: buys are paid in the quote coin, sells in the traded coin. Mixer: pick a coin, amount and rounds; each round takes a fee and lowers taint, rounds equal days of waiting, and the coins come back to the same address; the more you deposit, the worse the cleaning. Hardware wallets: on-chain coins sit in PLEDGER hardware wallets, each with its own balances and taint; open and connect them on the terminal's Wallets page. The Web3 page's trading, black market and mixer use the connected wallet, and coin-paying customers and mining rewards go into it too. Payments (black market, mixer, Ponero desk, listing fees) start as an invoice on the terminal; type the payee address on the wallet and hold ✓ to sign. The last two characters of an address are a checksum, so a one-character typo is usually caught; once in a while it happens to be valid and the coins go to an address nobody uses. DEX swaps also need a signature on the wallet. RatDigg miners (M1 / M2 / M3) are standalone machines with far more hash than a card and a lower power draw per hash; they need a battery, take modules and use no rig slots. Only the black market's miner dealers sell them, gated by black-market standing (M1 40, M2 60, M3 80), sometimes second-hand. When one burns out, repair it by putting electronic components in its repair slot in order; it comes back 20 health lower. Somewhere between day 50 and day 90 a "miner era" arrives, announced in the paper a few days earlier: the big farms halve their power costs, network hash climbs, GPU miners are diluted and low-end cards barely earn, while miners still do fine. Perps: the Perps tab on Poinbase uses your account CRC as margin, up to 5× on PSC and 3× on SPARK, one position per product, never long and short at once. Fills are worse than the quote (more so for bigger orders, like the spot pool) and opening and closing both cost a fee. Liquidation is checked only overnight against the day's average price: equity under 10% of notional wipes the margin. There is also a nightly funding payment; when the price is above its 7-day average, longs pay shorts. If a liquidation loses more than the margin, the insurance fund covers the gap; when it runs dry (a SPARK collapse can do that) winning positions are auto-deleveraged and give up half their profit; anything beyond that becomes your debt. Debt grows 2% a day, is repaid first from CRC in the account every night, blocks new positions and cash-outs, and after seven days items in your shop are seized to cover it; whatever is still short is written off and the perp account is banned for 30 days. Poinbase is a custodial account and can withdraw straight to the connected wallet; depositing from a wallet means sending to Poinbase's deposit address, which takes only CRC and PSC. More hardware wallets are sold by Dr. Jackson; drag one onto the trading terminal to add it, up to 5. The black market has cheaper ones. A wallet you no longer want can be destroyed on the Wallets page once its coins are moved out. Transfers pay a fee: slow, normal or fast, and gas prices rise and fall over roughly a week; when the network is congested fees rise and slow transactions may be dropped from the mempool. Check the full address before sending. Staking: CRA staked in the Revolution pool earns a daily rate that compounds into the stake; withdrawing means requesting first and waiting four days, with no interest while waiting and no way to take it early. The pool pays from a subsidy fund; when it runs low the rate is cut and word of big holders pulling out may spread. Treat that as a warning: once it collapses CRA is worthless within three days and four days of unlocking is too slow. The balance token SPARK can be minted and burned against CRA at the going price (with a fee); its price swings hard and crashes with the collapse. Staking, minting and burning are contract calls and need a signature on the wallet. Black market: coin only, no CRC, 30% above normal channels, with extra markup on high-tech goods and GPUs; the coin you pay leaves its share of taint with the seller and the goods carry no stolen tag; GPUs may be fake, inspect them yourself. Orders are cheaper than spot but take days and may be intercepted; merchants sell by type at their own price factor, 5+ items get 5% off and 10+ get 10% off, and a bulk merchant appears at random with the lowest prices but six days of waiting; escrow costs 5%, is released on delivery and refunded if the seller runs; advance release takes another 10% off, but a scammer keeps the money and only sellers with 30+ trades accept; the platform itself can rug, be taken over by enforcement, or a seller can be arrested, after which your orders get traced and crime logged; forum rumors can be warnings. An intercepted parcel sometimes turns into enforcement at your door: signing logs the crime on the spot and seizes the goods, refusing only costs the payment. Selling: on the black market's Sell tab, list contraband, high-tech goods and GPUs from storage at 0.6x to 1.8x the reference price. The higher the multiplier, the slower the sale (below 0.9x about a day, 1.0x about two, 1.8x about fourteen), and the likelier and larger the taint on the payout, which also grows with how much you sold in the last 7 days; at most 10 listings at a time, 5% listing fee, repricing a listing costs 2% and the sale speed follows the new multiplier, 8% commission, payout held 3 days before reaching your wallet; a fake card may be spotted and returned, hurting your rating; if the platform rugs, listed goods and unreleased payouts are gone. Anonymous-coin swap (Web3 trade page, needs black-market standing): Ponero is a privacy coin and swapping in wipes the taint on that value; 6% fee each way with a daily limit; coin swapped out of Ponero has no origin and cash-out screening gets stricter. Prediction markets (Web3 Predict page, from game day 8): each market is a yes/no question about things the game itself rolls or schedules: a news event appearing, a faction operation starting, tomorrow's water purity, the PSC price. A market is open until its window starts and settles on the night of the window's last day. Buy Yes or No with CRC from your on-chain wallet (a contract call: sign on the wallet; the position belongs to the signing wallet); the price is the market's implied probability and rises as you buy; each winning share pays 1 credit; 2% fee on each trade; each market has a position limit. Winnings inherit the taint ratio of the stake. Rumor slips and faction perks can tell you ahead of time that something will happen; betting Yes on such a market is an insider bet. A large insider position has a 50% chance of being caught at settlement: only your stake is returned and half the profit goes on record as fraud. If game data is missing for the window (for example you skipped the nightly settlement), the market is void and the stake is refunded. Prices react to news: each night every open market moves halfway toward the fair probability given public information, plus some noise; so whoever reads the paper, a rumor slip or a faction perk first can buy ahead and sell after the move instead of waiting for settlement. The clue list in a market panel shows what you know about it: schedules, cooldowns, the halving day, recent gas values, the CRA subsidy pool level, ASIC-era announcements. Patterns you can work out: faction operations are triggered by hidden power values at thresholds (for example a crackdown needs security >= 20 and black market >= 40, and drops security by 20); gas runs on a seven-day cycle; the price anchor ramps up the week before a halving; scheduled crackdowns and blackouts move the anchor but the market price does not reflect them ahead of time; the faster the subsidy drains (the more is staked) the earlier CRA warns; the PSC price market can be moved by your own big orders. The intel broker (needs enough black-market standing) sells a situation brief (the five power values and what each faction can launch now, in CRT) and three grades of insider tip (only for faction operations and the ASIC era, which are already decided; about 60 / 80 / 95% accurate; priced by market size; one in ten is fake and says the opposite of the truth); betting the tipped side counts as an insider bet. Market size grows with the day and a wrong bet loses the whole stake, so do not put everything on one market. Manipulation checks: your big Poinbase spot orders push the price away from where it would be without you (the push decays nightly with the price reversion; the market clue shows it). Once the push exceeds 2%, if you profit from the price (a PSC price market won in the direction you pushed, or a perp closed at a profit in that direction) you may be caught: the bigger the push the likelier (about 40% at 5%, 70% at 10%, capped at 95%). When caught, the prediction stake and winnings are confiscated entirely, perp profit is seized, half the profit goes on record as fraud, the perp account is frozen for 3 days, and the paper reports the investigation. Short-then-dump is not a sure thing: perp slippage on both sides and the spot round trip often cost more than the short earns." courier.odd1,...Package is here. courier.odd2,"(His hand stays in his pocket.) Sign here." courier.sign,Sign @@ -624,3 +624,8 @@ predict.brief.busy,{0}: operation running predict.brief.queued,{0}: operation scheduled predict.brief.none,{0}: nothing to launch predict.brief.can,{0}: can launch {1} +predict.clue.push,You moved the price {0}%: risky +nightlog.predict.manip,"Prediction ruled manipulation: ""{0}"", stake {1} confiscated, fraud on record." +news.manip.title,Exchange probes unusual trading +news.manip.desc,Regulators report that someone moved the price with large spot orders and profited from derivatives and predictions; the funds were seized. +perp.manip,Profit {0} on close ruled price manipulation and seized; perp account frozen for {1} days. diff --git a/src/Decentralized/ModFiles/Localization/zh.csv b/src/Decentralized/ModFiles/Localization/zh.csv index c9455be..f056c0b 100644 --- a/src/Decentralized/ModFiles/Localization/zh.csv +++ b/src/Decentralized/ModFiles/Localization/zh.csv @@ -267,7 +267,7 @@ black.kind.Contraband.3,违禁品（高） black.kind.Tech,高科技物品（加价） nightlog.bm.ready,"黑市：{0} 到货，开店后会有快递员上门。" item.web3guide.name,Web3 手册 -item.web3guide.desc,"银行：存入把信用点换成 Poinbase 账户里的 CRC；提取把 CRC 换回信用点，要过合规审查，审查看 Poinbase 账户的污点。交易：买入按计价币的数量支付，卖出按所交易币的数量卖出。混币器：选币种、填数量和轮数，每轮扣手续费并降低污点，轮数即等待天数，到期提回同一个地址；存入越多，清洗越差。硬件钱包：链上的币放在 PLEDGER 硬件钱包里，每个钱包的余额和污点各算各的；在终端的钱包页打开、连接。Web3 页的交易、黑市、混币器用已连接的钱包，用币付款的顾客和挖矿收益也进它。付款（黑市、混币器、Ponero 兑换处、上架费）先在终端开账单，再在钱包里手输收款地址、按住 ✓ 签名；地址末尾两位是校验位，输错一位多半会被拦下，偶尔碰巧合法，币就转进了没人用的地址。DEX 兑换也要在钱包上签名。Poinbase 是托管账户，可以直接提到已连接的钱包；从钱包充值要转到 Poinbase 的充值地址，只收 CRC 和 PSC。更多硬件钱包向杰克逊博士购买，拖到交易终端上添加，最多 5 个；黑市上也有更便宜的。不要的钱包可以在钱包页销毁，要先把币转走。转账要付手续费，分慢、普通、快三档，gas 价格大约一周一个起落；网络拥堵时手续费变贵，慢档可能被挤出内存池。转账前核对完整地址。质押：把 CRA 质押进革命军质押池每天有日息，利息并入本金；取出要先申请，等四天才到账，等待期间没有利息，也不能提前拿。质押池靠补贴池付息，补贴池见底会降息，有时还会传出大户撤出的消息，那是预兆：一旦崩盘，三天内 CRA 就一文不值，四天的解锁期来不及。平衡代币 SPARK 可以和 CRA 按价格互相铸销（收手续费），价格波动很大，崩盘时会跟着暴跌。质押、铸销都是合约调用，要在钱包上签名。RatDigg 矿机（M1 / M2 / M3）是独立的机器，算力比显卡大得多、耗电更省，要放电池才挖，可以放模块，不占矿架槽位；只在黑市的矿机商那里有，要黑市声望（M1 40、M2 60、M3 80），偶尔有二手的。暴毙后要往修理槽里放电子元件按顺序修好，修好健康少 20。第 50 到 90 天之间会有一次"矿机时代"，提前几天上报纸预告，之后大矿场的耗电成本砍半，全网算力涨上去，显卡矿工的收益被摊薄，低档显卡几乎不赚钱，矿机还行。永续合约：Poinbase 的"永续"页，用账户里的 CRC 当保证金，PSC 最高 5 倍、SPARK 最高 3 倍，一个品种只有一个仓位，不能同时多空。成交价比现价差一截（单越大差得越多，和现货池一样），开平仓还收手续费。强平只在夜里按当天均价检查，权益不到名义价值的 10% 就被强平，保证金没了；每晚还有资金费，价格比近 7 天均价高时多头付给空头。强平后亏光保证金还不够的缺口，先由保险基金垫，基金见底（SPARK 崩盘这类大行情会抽干它）后盈利的仓位会被自动减仓、少拿一半盈利，再不够就记成你的欠款：欠款每天涨 2%，账户里的 CRC 每晚先拿去还，没还清不能开仓、不能出金，七天不还就没收店里的物品抵债，抵不够的核销并拉黑永续账户 30 天。黑市：只收币，不收 CRC，价格比正常渠道贵 30%，高科技物品和显卡另有加价；付出去的币带着按比例的污点留在卖家那边，货不带赃物标签；显卡不保证真假，自己鉴定。订单比现货便宜，要等几天，路上可能被截获；商家按类型卖货，价格系数各不相同，一次订 5 件以上 95 折、10 件以上 9 折，大宗商家随机出现，价格最低但要等六天；托管多付 5% 托管费，收货后放款，卖家跑路时退款；提前放款再打九折，卖家若是骗子钱就没了，只有成交 30 单以上的卖家接受；平台自己也可能跑路，也可能被执法接管，或者卖家落网，之后你的订单会被追查、记罪证；论坛上的传闻可以当预兆。被截获的包裹有时会变成执法人员上门：签收当场记罪证并查封，拒签只损失货款。出售：在黑市的卖货页把储藏区里的违禁品、高科技物品和显卡上架，标价是参考价的 0.6 到 1.8 倍。倍率越高成交越慢（0.9 以下约一天，1.0 约两天，1.8 约十四天），货款带污点的可能性和比例也越高，近 7 天出售的量越大，污点越重；同时最多上架 10 件，上架收 5% 上架费，上架后可以改价（收 2% 改价费，标价按参考价重算，成交的快慢跟着新倍率走），成交扣 8% 抽成，货款托管 3 天后进钱包；卖假卡可能被买家看穿而退货，拉低好评；平台跑路时上架的货和未放款的货款都没了。匿名币兑换（Web3 交易页，要黑市声望）：Ponero 是隐私币，兑入时这部分价值的污点被清除；兑入、兑出各收 6% 手续费，每天有额度；从 Ponero 兑出的币来路不明，出金审查会加重。 预测市场（Web3 预测页，游戏第 8 天起）：每个盘口是一道是非题，只问游戏自己掷骰或排期的事：新闻事件出现、派系行动开始、明天的水纯度、PSC 价格。盘口开放到窗口开始前，窗口最后一天夜里结算；买「是」「否」用链上钱包的 CRC（合约调用，要在钱包上签名，持仓记在签名的钱包名下），价格就是市场认为的概率，买得越多越贵，押中每份兑付 1 信用点，买卖各收 2%。每个盘口有持仓上限。押中的钱继承押注资金的污点比例。传闻纸条、派系特权让你提前知道某件事会发生，在这类盘口押「是」算内幕单；内幕持仓太大，结算时有一半概率被查，只退本金，收益的一半记诈骗罪证。窗口里缺了游戏数据（例如那几天没睡觉结算），盘口作废退回本金。 价格会对消息作出反应：每晚盘口向当时公开信息下的合理概率靠拢一半，再加一点随机波动；所以先从报纸、传闻纸条、派系特权看到消息的人可以抢在前面买，涨价后卖出，不用等到结算。盘口面板的线索栏列出和这个盘口有关的已知信息：排期、冷却、减半日、gas 近几天的数值、CRA 补贴池水位、矿机时代预告。可以推演的规律：派系行动由隐藏的势力值按阈值触发（例如镇压要安保 ≥ 20 且黑市 ≥ 40，镇压后安保 −20）；gas 七天一个周期；减半前一周价格锚逐日抬高；排期好的镇压和停电会压低或抬高锚，但盘口价格不会预先反映；补贴池消耗越快（质押越多）CRA 越早预警；PSC 价格盘的价格能被你自己的大单推动。情报贩子（黑市声望够了才有）卖局势简报（五个势力值和各派系现在能发起的行动，CRT）和三档内幕消息（只针对已经定下来的派系行动、矿机时代盘口，准确率约 60 / 80 / 95%，价格按盘口规模，一成是假情报，说的与真相相反）；买了内幕消息再押同一边算内幕单。盘口规模随天数增长，押错本金全亏，别把钱都压在一个盘口上。" +item.web3guide.desc,"银行：存入把信用点换成 Poinbase 账户里的 CRC；提取把 CRC 换回信用点，要过合规审查，审查看 Poinbase 账户的污点。交易：买入按计价币的数量支付，卖出按所交易币的数量卖出。混币器：选币种、填数量和轮数，每轮扣手续费并降低污点，轮数即等待天数，到期提回同一个地址；存入越多，清洗越差。硬件钱包：链上的币放在 PLEDGER 硬件钱包里，每个钱包的余额和污点各算各的；在终端的钱包页打开、连接。Web3 页的交易、黑市、混币器用已连接的钱包，用币付款的顾客和挖矿收益也进它。付款（黑市、混币器、Ponero 兑换处、上架费）先在终端开账单，再在钱包里手输收款地址、按住 ✓ 签名；地址末尾两位是校验位，输错一位多半会被拦下，偶尔碰巧合法，币就转进了没人用的地址。DEX 兑换也要在钱包上签名。Poinbase 是托管账户，可以直接提到已连接的钱包；从钱包充值要转到 Poinbase 的充值地址，只收 CRC 和 PSC。更多硬件钱包向杰克逊博士购买，拖到交易终端上添加，最多 5 个；黑市上也有更便宜的。不要的钱包可以在钱包页销毁，要先把币转走。转账要付手续费，分慢、普通、快三档，gas 价格大约一周一个起落；网络拥堵时手续费变贵，慢档可能被挤出内存池。转账前核对完整地址。质押：把 CRA 质押进革命军质押池每天有日息，利息并入本金；取出要先申请，等四天才到账，等待期间没有利息，也不能提前拿。质押池靠补贴池付息，补贴池见底会降息，有时还会传出大户撤出的消息，那是预兆：一旦崩盘，三天内 CRA 就一文不值，四天的解锁期来不及。平衡代币 SPARK 可以和 CRA 按价格互相铸销（收手续费），价格波动很大，崩盘时会跟着暴跌。质押、铸销都是合约调用，要在钱包上签名。RatDigg 矿机（M1 / M2 / M3）是独立的机器，算力比显卡大得多、耗电更省，要放电池才挖，可以放模块，不占矿架槽位；只在黑市的矿机商那里有，要黑市声望（M1 40、M2 60、M3 80），偶尔有二手的。暴毙后要往修理槽里放电子元件按顺序修好，修好健康少 20。第 50 到 90 天之间会有一次"矿机时代"，提前几天上报纸预告，之后大矿场的耗电成本砍半，全网算力涨上去，显卡矿工的收益被摊薄，低档显卡几乎不赚钱，矿机还行。永续合约：Poinbase 的"永续"页，用账户里的 CRC 当保证金，PSC 最高 5 倍、SPARK 最高 3 倍，一个品种只有一个仓位，不能同时多空。成交价比现价差一截（单越大差得越多，和现货池一样），开平仓还收手续费。强平只在夜里按当天均价检查，权益不到名义价值的 10% 就被强平，保证金没了；每晚还有资金费，价格比近 7 天均价高时多头付给空头。强平后亏光保证金还不够的缺口，先由保险基金垫，基金见底（SPARK 崩盘这类大行情会抽干它）后盈利的仓位会被自动减仓、少拿一半盈利，再不够就记成你的欠款：欠款每天涨 2%，账户里的 CRC 每晚先拿去还，没还清不能开仓、不能出金，七天不还就没收店里的物品抵债，抵不够的核销并拉黑永续账户 30 天。黑市：只收币，不收 CRC，价格比正常渠道贵 30%，高科技物品和显卡另有加价；付出去的币带着按比例的污点留在卖家那边，货不带赃物标签；显卡不保证真假，自己鉴定。订单比现货便宜，要等几天，路上可能被截获；商家按类型卖货，价格系数各不相同，一次订 5 件以上 95 折、10 件以上 9 折，大宗商家随机出现，价格最低但要等六天；托管多付 5% 托管费，收货后放款，卖家跑路时退款；提前放款再打九折，卖家若是骗子钱就没了，只有成交 30 单以上的卖家接受；平台自己也可能跑路，也可能被执法接管，或者卖家落网，之后你的订单会被追查、记罪证；论坛上的传闻可以当预兆。被截获的包裹有时会变成执法人员上门：签收当场记罪证并查封，拒签只损失货款。出售：在黑市的卖货页把储藏区里的违禁品、高科技物品和显卡上架，标价是参考价的 0.6 到 1.8 倍。倍率越高成交越慢（0.9 以下约一天，1.0 约两天，1.8 约十四天），货款带污点的可能性和比例也越高，近 7 天出售的量越大，污点越重；同时最多上架 10 件，上架收 5% 上架费，上架后可以改价（收 2% 改价费，标价按参考价重算，成交的快慢跟着新倍率走），成交扣 8% 抽成，货款托管 3 天后进钱包；卖假卡可能被买家看穿而退货，拉低好评；平台跑路时上架的货和未放款的货款都没了。匿名币兑换（Web3 交易页，要黑市声望）：Ponero 是隐私币，兑入时这部分价值的污点被清除；兑入、兑出各收 6% 手续费，每天有额度；从 Ponero 兑出的币来路不明，出金审查会加重。 预测市场（Web3 预测页，游戏第 8 天起）：每个盘口是一道是非题，只问游戏自己掷骰或排期的事：新闻事件出现、派系行动开始、明天的水纯度、PSC 价格。盘口开放到窗口开始前，窗口最后一天夜里结算；买「是」「否」用链上钱包的 CRC（合约调用，要在钱包上签名，持仓记在签名的钱包名下），价格就是市场认为的概率，买得越多越贵，押中每份兑付 1 信用点，买卖各收 2%。每个盘口有持仓上限。押中的钱继承押注资金的污点比例。传闻纸条、派系特权让你提前知道某件事会发生，在这类盘口押「是」算内幕单；内幕持仓太大，结算时有一半概率被查，只退本金，收益的一半记诈骗罪证。窗口里缺了游戏数据（例如那几天没睡觉结算），盘口作废退回本金。 价格会对消息作出反应：每晚盘口向当时公开信息下的合理概率靠拢一半，再加一点随机波动；所以先从报纸、传闻纸条、派系特权看到消息的人可以抢在前面买，涨价后卖出，不用等到结算。盘口面板的线索栏列出和这个盘口有关的已知信息：排期、冷却、减半日、gas 近几天的数值、CRA 补贴池水位、矿机时代预告。可以推演的规律：派系行动由隐藏的势力值按阈值触发（例如镇压要安保 ≥ 20 且黑市 ≥ 40，镇压后安保 −20）；gas 七天一个周期；减半前一周价格锚逐日抬高；排期好的镇压和停电会压低或抬高锚，但盘口价格不会预先反映；补贴池消耗越快（质押越多）CRA 越早预警；PSC 价格盘的价格能被你自己的大单推动。情报贩子（黑市声望够了才有）卖局势简报（五个势力值和各派系现在能发起的行动，CRT）和三档内幕消息（只针对已经定下来的派系行动、矿机时代盘口，准确率约 60 / 80 / 95%，价格按盘口规模，一成是假情报，说的与真相相反）；买了内幕消息再押同一边算内幕单。盘口规模随天数增长，押错本金全亏，别把钱都压在一个盘口上。 操纵检出：你在 Poinbase 现货上的大单会把价格推离没有你时的水平（推价幅度每晚随价格回归衰减，预测盘线索里能看到）。推价幅度超过 2% 后，如果你从价格里赚到钱——行情盘押中而且方向和你推价的方向一致，或者永续平仓盈利而且方向一致——有概率被查：幅度越大越容易（5% 约 4 成，10% 约 7 成，封顶 95%）。被查则预测盘的本金和收益全部没收、永续盈利没收，收益的一半记诈骗罪证，永续账户冻结 3 天，报纸报道调查。先空后砸不是稳赚：永续单边滑点和现货来回的价差往往比空头赚到的还多。" courier.odd1,……东西到了。 courier.odd2,"（他的手一直放在口袋里）在这儿签个字。" courier.sign,签收 @@ -623,3 +623,8 @@ predict.brief.busy,{0}：行动进行中 predict.brief.queued,{0}：行动已排期 predict.brief.none,{0}：暂时发起不了 predict.brief.can,{0}：可发起 {1} +predict.clue.push,你推价 {0}%，易被查 +nightlog.predict.manip,预测被判操纵：「{0}」，本金 {1} 没收，记诈骗罪证。 +news.manip.title,交易所调查异常交易 +news.manip.desc,监管部门通报，有人用大额现货单推动价格，从合约和预测里获利，涉事资金已被追缴。 +perp.manip,平仓盈利 {0} 被判操纵价格，已没收，永续账户冻结 {1} 天。 diff --git a/src/Decentralized/Night.cs b/src/Decentralized/Night.cs index ae66811..d6d783c 100644 --- a/src/Decentralized/Night.cs +++ b/src/Decentralized/Night.cs @@ -184,7 +184,7 @@ namespace Decentralized if (d.Network.Reward < rewardBefore) d.Market.OnHalving(d.Rng); if (d.Network.Reward < rewardBefore) News.Show("pd_news_halving_" + day, L.T("news.halving.title"), L.T("news.halving.desc"), 2); // 预测市场：先登记今晚的观测再结算到期的盘口；行情盘读夜间更新之前的价格 - PredictGame.ClosePrice = d.Market.Price; PredictGame.CloseGas = d.Gas; + PredictGame.ClosePrice = d.Market.Price; PredictGame.CloseGas = d.Gas; PredictGame.ClosePush = d.Market.PlayerPush; // 永续：用今天的标记价（当日均价）结算，要在今晚的价格更新之前 var perpEvents = d.Perps.Night(day, new Dictionary { ["PSC"] = d.Market.Mark, ["SPARK"] = d.Stable.Spark }, d.Poinbase, Session.Price); if (perpEvents.Any(e => e.Kind == "seize")) SeizeForDebt(d, day); @@ -230,13 +230,19 @@ namespace Decentralized case Network.EraStep.Start: News.Show("pd_news_era_" + day, L.T("news.era.title"), L.T("news.era.desc"), 5); Log.Info("矿机时代到来：NPC 耗电效率翻倍"); break; } var predictEvents = PredictGame.Available(day) || d.Predict.Markets.Count > 0 - ? d.Predict.Night(day, PredictGame.ActiveIds(), m => PredictGame.Outcome(m, d), d.WalletAt, d.Rng) : new List(); + ? d.Predict.Night(day, PredictGame.ActiveIds(), m => PredictGame.Outcome(m, d), d.WalletAt, d.Rng, PredictGame.ClosePush) : new List(); d.Predict.Drift(day, m => PredictGame.PublicProb(m, d, day), d.Rng); foreach (var e in predictEvents) { if (e.Kind == "win") ps.AddNightLog(L.T("nightlog.predict.win", PredictGame.Question(e.Market), Fmt.Credits(e.Amount))); else if (e.Kind == "lose") ps.AddNightLog(L.T("nightlog.predict.lose", PredictGame.Question(e.Market), Fmt.Credits(e.Amount)), "cc7755"); else if (e.Kind == "void") ps.AddNightLog(L.T("nightlog.predict.void", PredictGame.Question(e.Market), Fmt.Credits(e.Amount))); + else if (e.Kind == "manip") + { + ps.secData.CommitCrime("FRAUD", (int)Math.Round(e.Fraud)); + ps.AddNightLog(L.T("nightlog.predict.manip", PredictGame.Question(e.Market), Fmt.Credits(e.Amount)), "cc7755"); + News.Show("pd_news_manip_" + day, L.T("news.manip.title"), L.T("news.manip.desc"), 3); + } else if (e.Kind == "caught") { ps.secData.CommitCrime("FRAUD", (int)Math.Round(e.Fraud)); diff --git a/src/Decentralized/PredictGame.cs b/src/Decentralized/PredictGame.cs index 35821f4..175baf4 100644 --- a/src/Decentralized/PredictGame.cs +++ b/src/Decentralized/PredictGame.cs @@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ namespace Decentralized private static readonly double[] GasCuts = { 0.8, 1.0, 1.2, 1.4 }; /// 夜间结算开始时记下的收盘数据：行情盘读夜间更新前的价格，gas 盘读当天的 gas（接着链上夜间事件就会改成明天的）。 - public static double ClosePrice, CloseGas; + public static double ClosePrice, CloseGas, ClosePush; public static bool Available(int day) => Session.Data != null && Unlock.IsUnlocked && day >= Tuning.PredictUnlockDay; @@ -266,6 +266,7 @@ namespace Decentralized list.Add(L.T("predict.clue.queued2", today + mgr.futurEventsDay[i], e.GetDisplayName())); } list.Add(L.T("predict.clue.anchor", Fmt.Num(d.Market.Anchor(d.ActiveEvents)))); + if (Math.Abs(d.Market.PlayerPush) >= Tuning.ManipFree) list.Add(L.T("predict.clue.push", (d.Market.PlayerPush * 100).ToString("+0.0;-0.0", System.Globalization.CultureInfo.InvariantCulture))); break; } case PredictKind.Gas: diff --git a/src/Decentralized/TerminalWindow.cs b/src/Decentralized/TerminalWindow.cs index fdc76ec..8be2ed3 100644 --- a/src/Decentralized/TerminalWindow.cs +++ b/src/Decentralized/TerminalWindow.cs @@ -604,6 +604,22 @@ namespace Decentralized if (pos == null) { _message = PerpErr(PerpResult.NoPosition); Open(); return; } double margin = pos.Margin; double paid = d.Perps.Close(d.Poinbase, _perpProduct, PerpSpot(_perpProduct), StoreStation.GetDayCounter(), out double deficit); + // 操纵：平仓盈利，而且盈利方向和玩家自己推价的方向一致，按推价幅度被查：盈利没收，记诈骗罪证，永续账户冻结几天 + double push = d.Market.PlayerPush, profit = paid - margin; + bool aligned = _perpProduct == "PSC" && profit > 0 && (pos.Long ? push > 0 : push < 0); + if (aligned && d.Rng.Chance(Market.ManipChance(push))) + { + int day = StoreStation.GetDayCounter(); + d.Poinbase.Add(Assets.CRC, -Math.Min(profit, d.Poinbase.Avail(Assets.CRC))); + d.Perps.BannedUntil = day + Tuning.ManipFreezeDays; + PlayerStore.Instance.secData.CommitCrime("FRAUD", (int)Math.Round(Math.Min(Tuning.PredictFraudCap, profit * Tuning.PredictFraudShare))); + News.Show("pd_news_manip_" + day, L.T("news.manip.title"), L.T("news.manip.desc"), 3); + _message = L.T("perp.manip", Fmt.Credits(profit), Tuning.ManipFreezeDays); + Log.Info($"永续操纵被查：盈利 {profit:0} 没收，推价 {push:0.000}"); + Session.Save(); + Open(); + return; + } _message = L.T("perp.closed", Fmt.Num(paid), (paid - margin >= 0 ? "+" : "") + Fmt.Num(paid - margin)) + (deficit > 0 ? "\n" + L.T("perp.deficit", Fmt.Credits(deficit)) : ""); Session.Save(); Open(); @@ -1446,7 +1462,9 @@ namespace Decentralized { string pay = buy ? p.Quote : p.Base, get = buy ? p.Base : p.Quote; if (w.Avail(pay) + 1e-9 < v) { _message = L.T(frozenPay(w, pay) ? "msg.frozen" : "msg.balance"); Open(); return; } + double before = p.Price; double got = buy ? p.BuyBase(v) : p.SellBase(v); + if (p == Session.Data.Market.Main) { Session.Data.Market.PlayerPush += Math.Log(p.Price / before); Log.Info($"现货推价：累计 {Session.Data.Market.PlayerPush:0.000}"); } double spent = v * Session.Price(pay); w.Add(pay, -v); w.Add(get, got); diff --git a/tests/Decentralized.Domain.Tests/Program.cs b/tests/Decentralized.Domain.Tests/Program.cs index 30023a0..d1c87f4 100644 --- a/tests/Decentralized.Domain.Tests/Program.cs +++ b/tests/Decentralized.Domain.Tests/Program.cs @@ -1239,6 +1239,34 @@ internal static class Program Check(PredictMath.EraProb(60, 62, 65, 58) > 0.5 && PredictMath.EraProb(60, 70, 71, 58) == 0, "预警后窗口覆盖区间就是高概率"); }); + Test("操纵检出：被查概率随推价幅度升高，推价每晚衰减，行情盘押中按方向被判", () => + { + Check(Market.ManipChance(0.01) == 0 && Market.ManipChance(-0.01) == 0, "幅度低于免查线不查"); + Check(Market.ManipChance(0.05) > Market.ManipChance(0.03) && Market.ManipChance(-0.05) == Market.ManipChance(0.05), "幅度越大越容易被查，方向无关"); + Check(Market.ManipChance(5) == Tuning.ManipMax, "封顶"); + var mk = Market.CreateDefault(5); double p0 = mk.Price; + mk.PlayerPush += Math.Log(1.1); + Check(Math.Abs(mk.NeutralPrice - p0 / 1.1 * 1.0) < 1e-6 || mk.NeutralPrice > 0, "没有玩家时的价格"); + double before = mk.PlayerPush; mk.Night(new List(), new Rng(1), 5, a => 1); + Check(Math.Abs(mk.PlayerPush - before * (1 - Tuning.Revert)) < 1e-9, "推价随回归衰减"); + // 行情盘：玩家推高后押「是」赢了，按概率被判操纵；押「否」不算；没推价不查 + int manip = 0, win = 0, noPush = 0; + for (ulong sd = 1; sd <= 200; sd++) + { + foreach (var (yes, push, outcome) in new[] { (true, 0.06, true), (false, 0.06, false), (true, 0.0, true) }) + { + var bk = new PredictBook(); var w = new Wallet { Address = "w" }; w.Add(Assets.CRC, 1e5); + var m = PredictMarket.Create(++bk.Seq, PredictKind.Price, "PSC", "PSC", 100, 4, 5, 5, 0.3); bk.Markets.Add(m); + bk.Buy(w, m, yes, 510, 4, a => 1, false, out _); + var ev = bk.Night(5, new string[0], x => outcome, _ => w, new Rng(sd), push); + if (ev[0].Kind == "manip") { if (yes && push > 0) manip++; else Check(false, "不该被判操纵"); Check(ev[0].Fraud > 0, "记罪证"); Check(w.Get(Assets.CRC) < 1e5 - 400, "本金没收"); } + else if (yes && push > 0) win++; else if (push == 0) noPush++; + } + } + double expect = Market.ManipChance(0.06) * 200; + Check(Math.Abs(manip - expect) < 40 && manip + win == 200 && noPush == 200, $"推价 6% 约 {expect:0} 次被判，被判 {manip}，没被判 {win}"); + }); + Test("预测市场：先验概率", () => { Check(Math.Abs(PredictMath.PurityAtLeast(8500, 8000, 8999) - 0.5) < 1e-9, "纯度 8500 以上一半");