Stage 7.1: prediction markets (LMSR, event/faction/purity/price markets, insider check)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/Decentralized/PredictGame.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,129 @@
+using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
+using System.Linq;
+using Decentralized.Domain;
+
+namespace Decentralized
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// 预测市场的接入层：按游戏当前状态给出候选盘口，夜间读游戏事件、派系行动、水纯度和本 mod 价格来结算，判断下注时玩家是否已经知道答案。
+    /// </summary>
+    public static class PredictGame
+    {
+        public static readonly string[] Factions = { "FACTION_SECURITY", "FACTION_REVOLUTION", "FACTION_LOWER_LEVEL", "FACTION_UPPER_LEVEL", "FACTION_BLACK_MARKET" };
+        private static readonly double[] GutterCuts = { 8200, 8400, 8600, 8800 }, RustCuts = { 9030, 9060, 9090, 9120 };
+        private static readonly double[] PriceMult = { 0.9, 0.95, 1.0, 1.05, 1.1 };
+
+        public static bool Available(int day) => Session.Data != null && Unlock.IsUnlocked && day >= Tuning.PredictUnlockDay;
+
+        /// <summary>夜间观测用的标识：生效中的事件，以及派系行动的 "F:派系"。</summary>
+        public static List<string> ActiveIds()
+        {
+            var list = new List<string>();
+            var mgr = StoreStation.Instance?.storeEventManager;
+            if (mgr == null) return list;
+            foreach (var e in mgr.GetActiveEvents())
+            {
+                list.Add(e.identifier);
+                if (e.isFactionOperation && !string.IsNullOrEmpty(e.sourceFaction)) list.Add("F:" + e.sourceFaction);
+            }
+            return list;
+        }
+
+        public static List<PredictCandidate> Candidates(int day)
+        {
+            var d = Session.Data;
+            var list = new List<PredictCandidate>();
+            var mgr = StoreStation.Instance?.storeEventManager;
+            if (mgr == null) return list;
+            // 常规事件：开门时先过"今天有没有事件"（5 天后才开始，有 0/1/2 件在身上时 50/35/25%），再按权重抽
+            int counter = mgr.GetEventCounter();
+            double dayChance = counter == 0 ? 0.50 : counter == 1 ? 0.35 : counter == 2 ? 0.25 : 0;
+            var pool = StoreEventManager.normalEventBlueprints.Where(e => !mgr.IsEventOnCooldown(e.identifier)).ToList();
+            double total = pool.Sum(e => (double)e.odd);
+            foreach (var bp in pool)
+            {
+                if (mgr.IsEventActive(bp.identifier)) continue;
+                string name;
+                try { name = bp.storeEventFunc().GetDisplayName(); } catch (Exception) { continue; }
+                double odd = bp.odd;
+                list.Add(new PredictCandidate { Kind = PredictKind.Event, Key = bp.identifier, Title = name, Prob = (from, to) => PredictMath.EventProb(dayChance, odd, total, to - from + 1) });
+            }
+            foreach (var f in Factions)
+            {
+                if (mgr.GetActiveEvents().Any(e => e.isFactionOperation && e.sourceFaction == f)) continue;
+                list.Add(new PredictCandidate { Kind = PredictKind.Faction, Key = f, Title = L.T("predict.faction." + f), Prob = (from, to) => PredictMath.FactionProb(to - from + 1) });
+            }
+            foreach (var t in GutterCuts)
+            {
+                double thr = t;
+                list.Add(new PredictCandidate { Kind = PredictKind.Purity, Key = "gutter", Title = L.T("predict.purity.gutter"), Param = thr, Tomorrow = true, Prob = (a, b) => PredictMath.PurityAtLeast(thr, 8000, 8999) });
+            }
+            foreach (var t in RustCuts)
+            {
+                double thr = t;
+                list.Add(new PredictCandidate { Kind = PredictKind.Purity, Key = "rust", Title = L.T("predict.purity.rust"), Param = thr, Tomorrow = true, Prob = (a, b) => PredictMath.PurityAtLeast(thr, 9000, 9150) });
+            }
+            double price = d.Market.Price, anchor = d.Market.Anchor(d.ActiveEvents);
+            foreach (var mult in PriceMult)
+            {
+                double thr = Math.Round(price * mult, price >= 100 ? 0 : 1);
+                list.Add(new PredictCandidate { Kind = PredictKind.Price, Key = "PSC", Title = "PSC", Param = thr, Prob = (from, to) => PredictMath.PriceAtLeast(price, anchor, Tuning.PscVol, Tuning.Revert, to - day, thr) });
+            }
+            // 价格盘一次只留一个（阈值不同的盘口会互相对冲）
+            return list;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>开门后补盘。</summary>
+        public static void Morning(SaveData d, int day)
+        {
+            if (!Available(day)) return;
+            var made = d.Predict.Refill(day, d.Rng, Candidates(day).Where(c => c.Kind != PredictKind.Price || !d.Predict.Markets.Any(m => m.Outcome < 0 && m.Kind == PredictKind.Price)).ToList());
+            foreach (var m in made) Log.Info($"预测盘口 #{m.Id}：{m.Kind} {m.Key} {m.Title} 阈值 {m.Param} 窗口 {m.FromDay}-{m.ToDay} 先验 {m.P0:0.000}");
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>夜间结算的结果：事件、派系读观测；纯度读当天的数值；行情读夜间更新之前的价格。</summary>
+        public static bool? Outcome(PredictMarket m, SaveData d)
+        {
+            switch (m.Kind)
+            {
+                case PredictKind.Event: case PredictKind.Faction: return d.Predict.Happened(m);
+                case PredictKind.Purity:
+                    var st = StoreStation.Instance;
+                    return st == null ? (bool?)null : (m.Key == "gutter" ? st.todayGutterflowPurity : st.todayRustwaterPurity) >= m.Param;
+                case PredictKind.Price: return d.Market.Price >= m.Param;
+            }
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        /// <summary>下注时玩家是否已经知道答案：这个事件（或派系行动）已经排进日程、玩家看得到（传闻纸条、派系特权），而且落在窗口里。只有押"会发生"才算内幕单。</summary>
+        public static bool Known(PredictMarket m, bool yes)
+        {
+            if (!yes || (m.Kind != PredictKind.Event && m.Kind != PredictKind.Faction)) return false;
+            var mgr = StoreStation.Instance?.storeEventManager;
+            if (mgr == null) return false;
+            int today = StoreStation.GetDayCounter();
+            for (int i = 0; i < mgr.futurEvents.Count; i++)
+            {
+                var e = mgr.futurEvents[i];
+                if (!e.IsKnown) continue;
+                bool match = m.Kind == PredictKind.Event ? e.identifier == m.Key : e.isFactionOperation && e.sourceFaction == m.Key;
+                int start = today + mgr.futurEventsDay[i];
+                if (match && start >= m.FromDay && start <= m.ToDay) return true;
+            }
+            return false;
+        }
+
+        public static string Question(PredictMarket m)
+        {
+            string win = m.FromDay == m.ToDay ? L.T("predict.win.one", m.FromDay) : L.T("predict.win.range", m.FromDay, m.ToDay);
+            switch (m.Kind)
+            {
+                case PredictKind.Event: return L.T("predict.q.event", win, m.Title);
+                case PredictKind.Faction: return L.T("predict.q.faction", win, m.Title);
+                case PredictKind.Purity: return L.T("predict.q.purity", win, m.Title, Fmt.Num(m.Param));
+                default: return L.T("predict.q.price", win, m.Title, Fmt.Num(m.Param));
+            }
+        }
+    }
+}