Halving now raises the price anchor (pass-through 0.6, ramp the week before) with a pre-halving news item

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/Decentralized.Domain/Market.cs

@@ -16,6 +16,8 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
     public sealed class Market
     {
         public double Sentiment = 1.0;
+        /// <summary>供给因子：出块奖励减半抬高挖矿成本，价格锚随之上移；减半前一周有预期行情。每晚向目标靠拢。</summary>
+        public double Supply = 1.0;
         public List<Pool> Pools = new List<Pool>();
         /// <summary>开门时的参考价，夜间用它和收盘价算当日均价（合约的标记价）。</summary>
         public double OpenPrice = Tuning.PscStartPrice;
@@ -42,9 +44,20 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         /// <summary>PSC 的参考价（信用点）。</summary>
         public double Price => Main.Price;
 
+        /// <summary>供给因子的目标：奖励比起始奖励每少一半，锚上移 2^传导指数；减半前 7 天内再逐日加预期。</summary>
+        public static double SupplyTarget(int day, double reward)
+        {
+            double t = Math.Pow(Tuning.BlockReward / Math.Max(1e-9, reward), Tuning.HalvingPassThrough);
+            int toHalving = Tuning.HalvingDays - day % Tuning.HalvingDays;   // 减半当晚 day % HalvingDays == 0，那天之后又是一个完整周期
+            if (toHalving <= Tuning.HalvingRampDays) t *= 1 + Tuning.HalvingRamp * (Tuning.HalvingRampDays - toHalving + 1) / Tuning.HalvingRampDays;
+            return t;
+        }
+
+        public void UpdateSupply(int day, double reward) => Supply += (SupplyTarget(day, reward) - Supply) * Tuning.SupplyAdjust;
+
         public double Anchor(ICollection<MarketEvent> active)
         {
-            double a = Tuning.PscStartPrice * Sentiment;
+            double a = Tuning.PscStartPrice * Sentiment * Supply;
             if (active.Contains(MarketEvent.Blackout)) a *= 1.10;
             if (active.Contains(MarketEvent.Crackdown)) a *= 0.92;
             return a;

src/Decentralized.Domain/Tuning.cs

@@ -9,6 +9,13 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         public const double PscStartPrice = 100;
         public const double BlockReward = 90;
         public const int HalvingDays = 90;
+        /// <summary>减半对币价的传导：奖励减半时，价格锚上移 2^传导指数 倍（0.6 即约 +52%），市场已部分预期到，所以不是翻倍。</summary>
+        public const double HalvingPassThrough = 0.6;
+        /// <summary>减半前一周的预期行情：锚逐日抬高，到减半当天为 +8%。</summary>
+        public const int HalvingRampDays = 7;
+        public const double HalvingRamp = 0.08;
+        /// <summary>价格锚向目标的逐晚靠拢比例（约 7 天完成大半）。</summary>
+        public const double SupplyAdjust = 0.15;
         public const double NpcHash0 = 360;
         public const double NpcKjPerH = 2.4;
         public const double ElecPrice = 1.5;

src/Decentralized/ModFiles/Localization/en.csv

@@ -127,3 +127,5 @@ lbl.ev.serial.1,"Serial: bad factory code or length"
 lbl.ev.serial.2,"Serial: tier code does not match"
 lbl.ev.print.1,"Print shows another model"
 lbl.ev.print.2,"Print was redone"
+news.prehalving.title,"PSC Halving Ahead"
+news.prehalving.desc,"Miners will receive half as many coins per night in three days. Holders expect the price to rise."

src/Decentralized/ModFiles/Localization/zh.csv

@@ -126,3 +126,5 @@ lbl.ev.serial.1,"序列号工厂码或位数不合规"
 lbl.ev.serial.2,"序列号档次码与型号不符"
 lbl.ev.print.1,"丝印印着另一个型号"
 lbl.ev.print.2,"丝印重印过"
+news.prehalving.title,"PSC 即将减半"
+news.prehalving.desc,"三天后矿工每晚获得的币减半。持币者预期币价上行。"

src/Decentralized/Night.cs

@@ -108,6 +108,8 @@ namespace Decentralized
             if (d.Network.Reward < rewardBefore) News.Show("pd_news_halving_" + day, L.T("news.halving.title"), L.T("news.halving.desc"), 2);
             double crcFactor = d.Stable.Night(day, d.Rng, 0);
             if (crcFactor < 1) d.Hot.Balances[Assets.CRC] = d.Hot.Get(Assets.CRC) * crcFactor;
+            d.Market.UpdateSupply(day, d.Network.Reward);
+            if (Tuning.HalvingDays - day % Tuning.HalvingDays == 3) News.Show("pd_news_prehalving_" + day, L.T("news.prehalving.title"), L.T("news.prehalving.desc"), 3);
             d.Market.Night(events, d.Rng, day, Session.Price);
             report.Price = d.Market.Price;
             d.LastNight = report;

tests/Decentralized.Domain.Tests/Program.cs

@@ -248,6 +248,21 @@ internal static class Program
             Check(hi.Price <= 300 + 1e-9, $"上限 3 倍：{hi.Price:0.0}");
         });
 
+        Test("市场：减半抬高价格锚（逐日靠拢），减半前一周有预期行情", () =>
+        {
+            Check(Near(Market.SupplyTarget(10, Tuning.BlockReward), 1.0, 1e-9), "减半前很远：目标因子 1");
+            double before = Market.SupplyTarget(89, Tuning.BlockReward), start = Market.SupplyTarget(83, Tuning.BlockReward);
+            Check(start > 1.0 && before > start && before <= 1 + Tuning.HalvingRamp + 1e-9, $"减半前 7 天逐日抬高，最多 +8%：{start:0.000} → {before:0.000}");
+            double after = Market.SupplyTarget(91, Tuning.BlockReward / 2);
+            Check(Near(after, Math.Pow(2, Tuning.HalvingPassThrough), 1e-9), $"减半后目标因子 2^0.6 = {after:0.000}");
+            var m = new Market();
+            for (int i = 0; i < 7; i++) m.UpdateSupply(91 + i, Tuning.BlockReward / 2);
+            Check(m.Supply > 1.0 && m.Supply < after, "逐晚靠拢目标，不一次跳到位");
+            for (int i = 0; i < 40; i++) m.UpdateSupply(100 + i % 5, Tuning.BlockReward / 2);
+            Check(Near(m.Supply, after, 0.02), "几十晚后基本到位");
+            Check(m.Anchor(new MarketEvent[0]) > Tuning.PscStartPrice * 1.4, "锚随之上移");
+        });
+
         Test("市场：其他交易对每晚被套利拉向参考价，三角价差收敛", () =>
         {
             var m = Market.CreateDefault(1);