Halving now raises the price anchor (pass-through 0.6, ramp the week before) with a pre-halving news item

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/Decentralized.Domain/Market.cs

@@ -16,6 +16,8 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
     public sealed class Market
     {
         public double Sentiment = 1.0;
+        /// <summary>供给因子：出块奖励减半抬高挖矿成本，价格锚随之上移；减半前一周有预期行情。每晚向目标靠拢。</summary>
+        public double Supply = 1.0;
         public List<Pool> Pools = new List<Pool>();
         /// <summary>开门时的参考价，夜间用它和收盘价算当日均价（合约的标记价）。</summary>
         public double OpenPrice = Tuning.PscStartPrice;
@@ -42,9 +44,20 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         /// <summary>PSC 的参考价（信用点）。</summary>
         public double Price => Main.Price;
 
+        /// <summary>供给因子的目标：奖励比起始奖励每少一半，锚上移 2^传导指数；减半前 7 天内再逐日加预期。</summary>
+        public static double SupplyTarget(int day, double reward)
+        {
+            double t = Math.Pow(Tuning.BlockReward / Math.Max(1e-9, reward), Tuning.HalvingPassThrough);
+            int toHalving = Tuning.HalvingDays - day % Tuning.HalvingDays;   // 减半当晚 day % HalvingDays == 0，那天之后又是一个完整周期
+            if (toHalving <= Tuning.HalvingRampDays) t *= 1 + Tuning.HalvingRamp * (Tuning.HalvingRampDays - toHalving + 1) / Tuning.HalvingRampDays;
+            return t;
+        }
+
+        public void UpdateSupply(int day, double reward) => Supply += (SupplyTarget(day, reward) - Supply) * Tuning.SupplyAdjust;
+
         public double Anchor(ICollection<MarketEvent> active)
         {
-            double a = Tuning.PscStartPrice * Sentiment;
+            double a = Tuning.PscStartPrice * Sentiment * Supply;
             if (active.Contains(MarketEvent.Blackout)) a *= 1.10;
             if (active.Contains(MarketEvent.Crackdown)) a *= 0.92;
             return a;

src/Decentralized.Domain/Tuning.cs

@@ -9,6 +9,13 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         public const double PscStartPrice = 100;
         public const double BlockReward = 90;
         public const int HalvingDays = 90;
+        /// <summary>减半对币价的传导：奖励减半时，价格锚上移 2^传导指数 倍（0.6 即约 +52%），市场已部分预期到，所以不是翻倍。</summary>
+        public const double HalvingPassThrough = 0.6;
+        /// <summary>减半前一周的预期行情：锚逐日抬高，到减半当天为 +8%。</summary>
+        public const int HalvingRampDays = 7;
+        public const double HalvingRamp = 0.08;
+        /// <summary>价格锚向目标的逐晚靠拢比例（约 7 天完成大半）。</summary>
+        public const double SupplyAdjust = 0.15;
         public const double NpcHash0 = 360;
         public const double NpcKjPerH = 2.4;
         public const double ElecPrice = 1.5;