Stage 7.2: manipulation detection (player price push, prediction/perp forfeits)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/Decentralized.Domain/Market.cs

@@ -21,6 +21,15 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         public List<Pool> Pools = new List<Pool>();
         /// <summary>开门时的参考价，夜间用它和收盘价算当日均价（合约的标记价）。</summary>
         public double OpenPrice = Tuning.PscStartPrice;
+        /// <summary>玩家自己的现货大单把价格推高（正）或压低（负）的对数幅度，每晚随价格回归一起衰减。操纵检出和预测盘用它估"没有玩家时的价格"。</summary>
+        public double PlayerPush;
+        public double NeutralPrice => Price * Math.Exp(-PlayerPush);
+        /// <summary>被查概率：推价幅度（绝对值）超过 ManipFree 后随幅度升高。</summary>
+        public static double ManipChance(double push)
+        {
+            push = Math.Abs(push);
+            return push < Tuning.ManipFree ? 0 : Math.Min(Tuning.ManipMax, Tuning.ManipBase + Tuning.ManipSlope * (push - Tuning.ManipFree));
+        }
 
         public const double ArbRate = Tuning.SideArbRate;          // 非主交易对每晚被拉回参考价的比例
         public const double SideDepthShare = Tuning.SideDepthShare;   // 非主交易对的深度占主交易对的比例
@@ -104,6 +113,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         /// </summary>
         public void Night(ICollection<MarketEvent> active, Rng rng, int day, Func<string, double> stablePrice)
         {
+            PlayerPush *= 1 - Tuning.Revert;
             Sentiment *= Math.Exp(Tuning.SentimentKappa * -Math.Log(Sentiment) + rng.Gauss() * Tuning.SentimentVol);
             double anchor = Anchor(active);
             double lp = Math.Log(Price);

src/Decentralized.Domain/Predict.cs

@@ -183,7 +183,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         /// 夜间：先登记今晚的观测，再结算 ToDay 到了的盘口（赢的钱回到下注的钱包，wallet 按地址找）。outcome 由接入层给出（事件 / 派系读观测，纯度和行情读游戏数值），null 表示拿不到数据。
         /// 赢家每份兑付 1 信用点；内幕持仓达到份额上限的 <see cref="Tuning.PredictInsiderShare"/> 后，有概率被查：只退本金，收益的一半记罪证。
         /// </summary>
-        public List<PredictEvent> Night(int day, IEnumerable<string> activeNow, Func<PredictMarket, bool?> outcome, Func<string, Wallet> wallet, Rng rng)
+        public List<PredictEvent> Night(int day, IEnumerable<string> activeNow, Func<PredictMarket, bool?> outcome, Func<string, Wallet> wallet, Rng rng, double push = 0)
         {
             var now = activeNow.Distinct().ToList();
             if (Prev != null) Started[day] = now.Where(x => !Prev.Contains(x)).ToList();
@@ -206,6 +206,14 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
                 }
                 m.Outcome = res.Value ? 1 : 0;
                 var winners = all.Where(x => x.Yes == res.Value).ToList();
+                // 操纵：行情盘上，赢家的方向和玩家推价的方向一致时按推价幅度被查——本金和收益都没收，收益的一半记罪证
+                if (m.Kind == PredictKind.Price && winners.Count > 0 && winners.Any(x => x.Yes ? push > 0 : push < 0) && rng.Chance(Market.ManipChance(push)))
+                {
+                    double profitM = winners.Sum(x => x.Shares) - cost;
+                    evs.Add(new PredictEvent { Kind = "manip", Title = m.Title, Market = m, Amount = cost, Fraud = Math.Min(Tuning.PredictFraudCap, Math.Max(0, profitM) * Tuning.PredictFraudShare) });
+                    Record(day, m, m.Outcome, -cost, true);
+                    continue;
+                }
                 if (all.Count > 0 && winners.Count == 0)
                 {
                     evs.Add(new PredictEvent { Kind = "lose", Title = m.Title, Market = m, Amount = cost });

src/Decentralized.Domain/Tuning.cs

@@ -203,6 +203,10 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         public const double IntelBriefPrice = 120, IntelFake = 0.10;
         public static readonly double[] IntelTipPrice = { 0.01, 0.025, 0.05 }, IntelTipAcc = { 0.60, 0.80, 0.95 };
         public const int IntelRep = 20;
+        /// <summary>操纵检出：玩家自己的大单把价格推离"没有你时的水平"的对数幅度（取绝对值）低于 ManipFree 不查；
+        /// 超过后被查概率 = ManipBase + ManipSlope × (幅度 − ManipFree)，封顶 ManipMax；被查后永续账户冻结几天。</summary>
+        public const double ManipFree = 0.02, ManipBase = 0.25, ManipSlope = 6, ManipMax = 0.95;
+        public const int ManipFreezeDays = 3;
 
         /// <summary>主交易对（信用点一侧）的深度随天数增长。</summary>
         public static double PoolDepth(int day) => PoolDepth0 * (1 + day / 60.0);