Stage 7.2: manipulation detection (player price push, prediction/perp forfeits)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

src/Decentralized.Domain/Predict.cs

@@ -183,7 +183,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
         /// 夜间：先登记今晚的观测，再结算 ToDay 到了的盘口（赢的钱回到下注的钱包，wallet 按地址找）。outcome 由接入层给出（事件 / 派系读观测，纯度和行情读游戏数值），null 表示拿不到数据。
         /// 赢家每份兑付 1 信用点；内幕持仓达到份额上限的 <see cref="Tuning.PredictInsiderShare"/> 后，有概率被查：只退本金，收益的一半记罪证。
         /// </summary>
-        public List<PredictEvent> Night(int day, IEnumerable<string> activeNow, Func<PredictMarket, bool?> outcome, Func<string, Wallet> wallet, Rng rng)
+        public List<PredictEvent> Night(int day, IEnumerable<string> activeNow, Func<PredictMarket, bool?> outcome, Func<string, Wallet> wallet, Rng rng, double push = 0)
         {
             var now = activeNow.Distinct().ToList();
             if (Prev != null) Started[day] = now.Where(x => !Prev.Contains(x)).ToList();
@@ -206,6 +206,14 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
                 }
                 m.Outcome = res.Value ? 1 : 0;
                 var winners = all.Where(x => x.Yes == res.Value).ToList();
+                // 操纵：行情盘上，赢家的方向和玩家推价的方向一致时按推价幅度被查——本金和收益都没收，收益的一半记罪证
+                if (m.Kind == PredictKind.Price && winners.Count > 0 && winners.Any(x => x.Yes ? push > 0 : push < 0) && rng.Chance(Market.ManipChance(push)))
+                {
+                    double profitM = winners.Sum(x => x.Shares) - cost;
+                    evs.Add(new PredictEvent { Kind = "manip", Title = m.Title, Market = m, Amount = cost, Fraud = Math.Min(Tuning.PredictFraudCap, Math.Max(0, profitM) * Tuning.PredictFraudShare) });
+                    Record(day, m, m.Outcome, -cost, true);
+                    continue;
+                }
                 if (all.Count > 0 && winners.Count == 0)
                 {
                     evs.Add(new PredictEvent { Kind = "lose", Title = m.Title, Market = m, Amount = cost });