Ponero fee 6%/cap 1000, mixer fee 3%, brand-new GPUs on the black market
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@@ -26,6 +26,7 @@
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- 游戏内验证:货架显示显卡、模组、能量电池;买一张卡后出售页列出储藏区里的货,上架(标价 400,上架费 20),过夜成交(货款 368),3 天后到账(CRT 2804 → 3172,这次随机没带污点)。没有在游戏里验证:假卡退货、跑路时的出售损失(只有单元测试)。
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- 收尾核算(`research/sim/bm_econ.py`,按 Tuning 常量算期望):Ponero 来回 15.4%,与混币器洗掉 80% 污点的 15–18% 相当,但当天完成、清得彻底、不受制裁,所以手续费 8% → 10%(来回 19%),日额度 1000 → 600(日额度按钱包污点占比估,约够清掉稳态的污点流入,后期会成为瓶颈);出售的最优倍率取决于玩家的资金机会成本:每天 1% 时 ×1.8,2–3% 时 ×1.5,倍率不是越高越好;订单:托管期望净 +0.02、提前放款 +0.07(现货 −0.30),所以订单是便宜进货,不是赚钱路线;订单进货再挂高价出售的套利每件约 +0.13–0.18(20 天一轮,资金占用),量小,暂不限制上架数。
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- 调整(用户意见):Ponero 手续费 10% → 6%(一进一出约 12%),日额度 600 → 1000;混币器每轮手续费 4% → 3%。黑市货架上的显卡有 15% 是全新卡(成色 100,封条完好,不会是假卡),标签显示"全新"。全新卡只有单元测试,没有在游戏里见过。
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- 收尾验证(游戏内):黑市每周刷新(第 8 天自动刷出 5 种现货、8 种订单目录);蜜罐追查到期记罪证 300;假卡上架 8 件,有一件被看穿退货(好评下降);其余成交后到账,其中一笔带污点;受控交付选"签收。"记罪证 136、货被查封;镇压期间黑市页显示下线(改成实时读取游戏事件,原来要等过夜才更新)。
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- 没有在游戏里验证:平台跑路时订单和出售一起清零(单元测试覆盖)、死投点已删除。
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@@ -80,7 +80,9 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
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double r = rng.NextDouble();
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if (r < Tuning.BmGpuChance)
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{
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var c = UsedDealers.Card(gpus, Tuning.BmGpuFake, 0, rng);
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bool fresh = rng.Chance(Tuning.BmGpuNew);
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var c = UsedDealers.Card(gpus, fresh ? 0 : Tuning.BmGpuFake, 0, rng);
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if (fresh) c.Health = 100;
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goods.Add(new BmGood { Item = "gpu:" + c.Model, Kind = GoodKind.Gpu, Level = 2, Model = c.Model, FakeOf = c.FakeOf, Health = c.Health, Price = price(CardValue.Of(c.Model, c.Health), GoodKind.Gpu) });
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}
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else if (r < Tuning.BmGpuChance + Tuning.BmTechChance && tech.Count > 0)
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@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
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public const double AmlTaintRatio = 0.10, AmlHeavyRatio = 0.30, AmlMixerBonus = 0.30, AmlMaxChance = 0.9;
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public const double TaxRate = 0.08;
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/// <summary>混币器:每轮手续费、基准清洗率、NPC 背景量(信用点)、最大轮数、最小存入、制裁概率与天数、每晚跑路概率。</summary>
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public const double MixerFee = 0.04, MixerCleanRate = 0.35, MixerNpcVolume = 20000, MixerMin = 100, MixerSanctionChance = 0.5, MixerRugChance = 0.004;
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public const double MixerFee = 0.03, MixerCleanRate = 0.35, MixerNpcVolume = 20000, MixerMin = 100, MixerSanctionChance = 0.5, MixerRugChance = 0.004;
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public const int MixerMaxRounds = 5, MixerSanctionDays = 5;
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/// <summary>各派系顾客用币付款的概率。</summary>
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public const double CoinPayCrc = 0.30, CoinPayCrt = 0.50, CoinPayCra = 0.50, CoinPayPsc = 0.25;
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@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
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public const double BmStockPerRep = 40, BmPremium = 0.30;
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/// <summary>Ponero 兑换处:开放所需黑市声望、每次兑入 / 兑出的手续费、每天可兑换的额度(信用点)、对 PSC 的价格比。</summary>
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public const int PoneroOpenRep = 30;
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public const double PoneroFee = 0.10, PoneroDailyCap = 600, PoneroPscRatio = 0.5;
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public const double PoneroFee = 0.06, PoneroDailyCap = 1000, PoneroPscRatio = 0.5;
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/// <summary>黑市订单:订单价相对游戏基础价的折扣、托管费、提前放款再折扣、提前放款所需卖家成交数、上门的天数、
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/// 上门被截获的概率(镇压期间再加)、骗子卖家占比、每晚平台跑路基础概率与每万信用点托管资金加的概率(封顶)、跑路后关闭的天数。</summary>
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public const double BmOrderDiscount = 0.15, BmEscrowFee = 0.05, BmAdvanceDiscount = 0.10, BmInterceptDoor = 0.08, BmInterceptCrackdown = 0.15;
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@@ -98,8 +98,8 @@ namespace Decentralized.Domain
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/// 订单被截获时变成受控交付的概率;每晚某个近期卖家落网的概率。</summary>
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public const double BmHoneypotBase = 0.01, BmHoneypotPerSecRep = 0.0004, BmHoneypotMax = 0.06, BmControlled = 0.35, BmSellerBust = 0.008;
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public const int BmHoneypotDays = 6, BmTrapDelay = 4;
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/// <summary>货架上除违禁品外的两类货:高科技物品(需中档声望)和显卡的出现概率、加价(在现货溢价 / 订单价之外再加),显卡里夹假卡的比例。</summary>
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public const double BmTechChance = 0.30, BmGpuChance = 0.30, BmTechMarkup = 0.5, BmGpuMarkup = 0.2, BmGpuFake = 0.20;
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/// <summary>货架上除违禁品外的两类货:高科技物品(需中档声望)和显卡的出现概率、加价(在现货溢价 / 订单价之外再加),显卡里夹假卡的比例、是全新卡(成色 100、封条完好、不会是假卡)的概率。</summary>
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public const double BmTechChance = 0.30, BmGpuChance = 0.30, BmTechMarkup = 0.5, BmGpuMarkup = 0.2, BmGpuFake = 0.20, BmGpuNew = 0.15;
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/// <summary>玩家上架出售:标价倍率范围(相对参考价)、上架费、成交抽成、成交后货款托管天数、假卡被买家看穿的概率;
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/// 倍率 ≤0.9 / 1.0 / 1.8 时的期望成交天数(之间插值);货款带污点的概率与比例随倍率从下限涨到上限;卖家好评的初始值、看穿一次扣的点数。</summary>
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public const double BmListFee = 0.05, BmCommission = 0.08, BmSellMin = 0.6, BmSellMax = 1.8, BmFakeDetect = 0.5;
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@@ -126,6 +126,7 @@ namespace Decentralized
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{
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var item = ModHelper.SpawnItem(GpuId(model));
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var u = new Unit { Model = model, FakeOf = fakeOf, Health = health, Look = CardLook.Generate(rng, health, fakeOf != null) };
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if (health >= 100 && fakeOf == null) u.Look.Sticker = 0; // 全新卡:封条完好
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Store(item, u);
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if (seller != null)
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{
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@@ -270,7 +270,7 @@ black.kind.Contraband.3,Contraband (high)
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black.kind.Tech,High-tech (markup)
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nightlog.bm.ready,"Black market: {0} arrived; a courier will come by once you open."
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item.web3guide.name,Web3 Handbook
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item.web3guide.desc,"Bank: depositing turns credits into CRC; withdrawing turns CRC back into credits and goes through compliance screening. Trading: buys are paid in the quote coin, sells in the traded coin. Mixer: pick a coin, amount and rounds; each round takes a fee and lowers taint, rounds equal days of waiting, and the coins come back to the same address; the more you deposit, the worse the cleaning. Black market: coin only, no CRC, 30% above normal channels, with extra markup on high-tech goods and GPUs; the coin you pay leaves its share of taint with the seller and the goods carry no stolen tag; GPUs may be fake, inspect them yourself. Orders are cheaper than spot but take days and may be intercepted; escrow costs 5%, is released on delivery and refunded if the seller runs; advance release takes another 10% off, but a scammer keeps the money and only sellers with 30+ trades accept; the platform itself can rug, be taken over by enforcement, or a seller can be arrested, after which your orders get traced and crime logged; forum rumors can be warnings. An intercepted parcel sometimes turns into enforcement at your door: signing logs the crime on the spot and seizes the goods, refusing only costs the payment. Selling: on the black market's Sell page, list contraband, high-tech goods and GPUs from storage at 0.6x to 1.8x the reference price. The higher the multiplier, the slower the sale (below 0.9x about a day, 1.0x about two, 1.8x about fourteen), and the likelier and larger the taint on the payout; 5% listing fee, 8% commission, payout held 3 days before reaching your wallet; a fake card may be spotted and returned, hurting your rating; if the platform rugs, listed goods and unreleased payouts are gone. Ponero desk: Ponero is a privacy coin and swapping in wipes the taint on that value; 10% fee each way with a daily limit; coin swapped out of Ponero has no origin and cash-out screening gets stricter."
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item.web3guide.desc,"Bank: depositing turns credits into CRC; withdrawing turns CRC back into credits and goes through compliance screening. Trading: buys are paid in the quote coin, sells in the traded coin. Mixer: pick a coin, amount and rounds; each round takes a fee and lowers taint, rounds equal days of waiting, and the coins come back to the same address; the more you deposit, the worse the cleaning. Black market: coin only, no CRC, 30% above normal channels, with extra markup on high-tech goods and GPUs; the coin you pay leaves its share of taint with the seller and the goods carry no stolen tag; GPUs may be fake, inspect them yourself. Orders are cheaper than spot but take days and may be intercepted; escrow costs 5%, is released on delivery and refunded if the seller runs; advance release takes another 10% off, but a scammer keeps the money and only sellers with 30+ trades accept; the platform itself can rug, be taken over by enforcement, or a seller can be arrested, after which your orders get traced and crime logged; forum rumors can be warnings. An intercepted parcel sometimes turns into enforcement at your door: signing logs the crime on the spot and seizes the goods, refusing only costs the payment. Selling: on the black market's Sell page, list contraband, high-tech goods and GPUs from storage at 0.6x to 1.8x the reference price. The higher the multiplier, the slower the sale (below 0.9x about a day, 1.0x about two, 1.8x about fourteen), and the likelier and larger the taint on the payout; 5% listing fee, 8% commission, payout held 3 days before reaching your wallet; a fake card may be spotted and returned, hurting your rating; if the platform rugs, listed goods and unreleased payouts are gone. Ponero desk: Ponero is a privacy coin and swapping in wipes the taint on that value; 6% fee each way with a daily limit; coin swapped out of Ponero has no origin and cash-out screening gets stricter."
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courier.odd1,...Package is here.
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courier.odd2,"(His hand stays in his pocket.) Sign here."
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courier.sign,Sign
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@@ -307,3 +307,4 @@ black.sale.Paid,paid
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black.sale.Lost,platform rugged, gone
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black.sale.Delisted,taken down
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black.sale.Delisted.fake,buyer spotted the fake and returned it
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black.kind.gpunew,GPU brand new
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@@ -269,7 +269,7 @@ black.kind.Contraband.3,违禁品(高)
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black.kind.Tech,高科技物品(加价)
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nightlog.bm.ready,"黑市:{0} 到货,开店后会有快递员上门。"
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item.web3guide.name,Web3 手册
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item.web3guide.desc,"银行:存入把信用点换成 CRC;提取把 CRC 换回信用点,提取要过合规审查。交易:买入按计价币的数量支付,卖出按所交易币的数量卖出。混币器:选币种、填数量和轮数,每轮扣手续费并降低污点,轮数即等待天数,到期提回同一个地址;存入越多,清洗越差。黑市:只收币,不收 CRC,价格比正常渠道贵 30%,高科技物品和显卡另有加价;付出去的币带着按比例的污点留在卖家那边,货不带赃物标签;显卡不保证真假,自己鉴定。订单比现货便宜,要等几天,路上可能被截获;托管多付 5% 托管费,收货后放款,卖家跑路时退款;提前放款再打九折,卖家若是骗子钱就没了,只有成交 30 单以上的卖家接受;平台自己也可能跑路,也可能被执法接管,或者卖家落网,之后你的订单会被追查、记罪证;论坛上的传闻可以当预兆。被截获的包裹有时会变成执法人员上门:签收当场记罪证并查封,拒签只损失货款。出售:在黑市的出售页把储藏区里的违禁品、高科技物品和显卡上架,标价是参考价的 0.6 到 1.8 倍。倍率越高成交越慢(0.9 以下约一天,1.0 约两天,1.8 约十四天),货款带污点的可能性和比例也越高;上架收 5% 上架费,成交扣 8% 抽成,货款托管 3 天后进钱包;卖假卡可能被买家看穿而退货,拉低好评;平台跑路时上架的货和未放款的货款都没了。Ponero 兑换处:Ponero 是隐私币,兑入时这部分价值的污点被清除;兑入、兑出各收 10% 手续费,每天有额度;从 Ponero 兑出的币来路不明,出金审查会加重。"
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item.web3guide.desc,"银行:存入把信用点换成 CRC;提取把 CRC 换回信用点,提取要过合规审查。交易:买入按计价币的数量支付,卖出按所交易币的数量卖出。混币器:选币种、填数量和轮数,每轮扣手续费并降低污点,轮数即等待天数,到期提回同一个地址;存入越多,清洗越差。黑市:只收币,不收 CRC,价格比正常渠道贵 30%,高科技物品和显卡另有加价;付出去的币带着按比例的污点留在卖家那边,货不带赃物标签;显卡不保证真假,自己鉴定。订单比现货便宜,要等几天,路上可能被截获;托管多付 5% 托管费,收货后放款,卖家跑路时退款;提前放款再打九折,卖家若是骗子钱就没了,只有成交 30 单以上的卖家接受;平台自己也可能跑路,也可能被执法接管,或者卖家落网,之后你的订单会被追查、记罪证;论坛上的传闻可以当预兆。被截获的包裹有时会变成执法人员上门:签收当场记罪证并查封,拒签只损失货款。出售:在黑市的出售页把储藏区里的违禁品、高科技物品和显卡上架,标价是参考价的 0.6 到 1.8 倍。倍率越高成交越慢(0.9 以下约一天,1.0 约两天,1.8 约十四天),货款带污点的可能性和比例也越高;上架收 5% 上架费,成交扣 8% 抽成,货款托管 3 天后进钱包;卖假卡可能被买家看穿而退货,拉低好评;平台跑路时上架的货和未放款的货款都没了。Ponero 兑换处:Ponero 是隐私币,兑入时这部分价值的污点被清除;兑入、兑出各收 6% 手续费,每天有额度;从 Ponero 兑出的币来路不明,出金审查会加重。"
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courier.odd1,……东西到了。
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courier.odd2,"(他的手一直放在口袋里)在这儿签个字。"
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courier.sign,签收
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@@ -306,3 +306,4 @@ black.sale.Paid,已到账
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black.sale.Lost,平台跑路,没了
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black.sale.Delisted,已撤下
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black.sale.Delisted.fake,买家看穿假卡退货
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black.kind.gpunew,显卡 全新
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@@ -437,7 +437,7 @@ namespace Decentralized
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var sprite = Icon(g.Item);
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if (sprite != null) c.AddImage(sprite, 64f, 64f); else c.AddSpace(64f);
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c.AddLabel("<b>" + ItemName(g.Item) + "</b>");
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c.AddLabel(g.Kind == GoodKind.Gpu ? L.T("black.kind.gpu", (int)Math.Round(g.Health)) : L.T("black.kind." + g.Kind + (g.Kind == GoodKind.Contraband ? "." + g.Level : "")));
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c.AddLabel(g.Kind == GoodKind.Gpu ? (g.Health >= 100 ? L.T("black.kind.gpunew") : L.T("black.kind.gpu", (int)Math.Round(g.Health))) : L.T("black.kind." + g.Kind + (g.Kind == GoodKind.Contraband ? "." + g.Level : "")));
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if (!string.IsNullOrEmpty(line2)) c.AddLabel(line2);
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}
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@@ -702,6 +702,23 @@ internal static class Program
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Check(s5.State == SaleState.Listed, "镇压期间平台下线,不成交");
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});
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Test("黑市全新卡", () =>
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{
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int fresh = 0, total = 0, bad = 0;
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for (int i = 0; i < 300; i++)
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{
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var bm = new BlackMarket();
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bm.Refresh(10, 75, new Rng((ulong)i + 11), id => 100);
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foreach (var o in bm.Offers.Where(x => x.Kind == GoodKind.Gpu))
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{
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total++;
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if (o.Health >= 100) { fresh++; if (o.FakeOf != null) bad++; }
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}
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}
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Check(total > 300 && fresh > total * 0.08 && fresh < total * 0.25 && bad == 0, $"显卡里约 {Tuning.BmGpuNew:P0} 是全新卡,且不会是假卡:{fresh}/{total},假 {bad}");
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Check(Near(Tuning.PoneroFee, 0.06, 1e-9) && Near(1 - Math.Pow(1 - Tuning.PoneroFee, 2), 0.12, 0.01), "Ponero 一进一出约 12%");
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});
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Console.WriteLine($"\n{_passed} 通过,{_failed} 失败");
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return _failed == 0 ? 0 : 1;
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}
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